After the demise of Jayalalitha, AIADMK government is facing internal crisis in the party. There is no semblance of authority and the party is pulled from three corners and no one knows who the leader of the party is and who actually controls the government.
After Jaya’s hospitalization O Panerselvan (OPS) was leading the government. However, after Jaya’s death V Sashikala took control of the party and threw out OPS and wanted to be the Chief Minister. Her sentence in the disproportionate asset case forbids her from doing so. She handpicked Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) to lead the government and appointed his relative Dinakaram to run the AIADMK party.
This prompted O Panerselvan (OPS) raised standard of revolt against the new arrangement and he went on to canvas against the Sashilkala and Dinakran’s control over the party.
Both OPS and EPS faction to control the party symbol the two leaves that was seized by the Election commission. However the back channel negotiations between the two warning AIDMK factions fructified in the merger of the two and the EPS and OPS decided to bury the hatchet.
The rapprochement was possible only when EPS agreed to prune away Shashikala and Dinakran from the AIADMK party with Jayalitha as their presiding deity. This led to another split in the party as Dinakaran who controlled the party asked his supporters pull out from the government and thus reduce is short of the working majority.
The Dinakaran faction to avoid horse trading is now huddled in a resort in Pondicherry waiting for the next move of the ruling government or the Governor of the state.
The opposition parties in Tamil Nadu is clamouring for the floor test of government but the Governor is just adopting a wait and watch policy, perhaps he is waiting for BJP high command signals and to give him direction in this matter.
The BJP national leadership has thrown its hat in the ring because the AIADMK has about 39 MPS in the Parliament and both EPS and OPS factions have given consent to support the NDA. It’s not known how many MPS Dinakran controls and what is their stand.
Right now Dinakaran, seems to be controlling the AIADMK party and making changes as per his wishes. He appears to be the one who controls the party. Both OPS and EPS looks like are just poster boys of the AIADMK.
Now in such situation if the EPS and OPS faction want to continue in power they have to beg borrow steal some MLAS and get their support and pass the floor test.
It is certain that the Dinakran faction is not going the support the EPS and OPS designs but at the same time it cannot reach anywhere near the majority figure and form its own government even though efforts are being made on such lines. As such Dinakran’s faction only has the nuisance value of toppling the current government.
The BJP central leadership in Delhi is backing the strategy that somehow OPS and EPS get the required support and prove the majority and that is the reason why floor test is being delayed in Tamil Nadu.
The opposition is waiting for the floor test to take place as quickly as possible. This is because both the OPS and EPS could not cobble the required majority. However, the current rigmarole cannot continue for long. Sooner or later the Governor has to take a call and ask the government of the day to prove its majority.
In case if that does not takes place then the state has to be put under Governor’s rule and the election commission has to come into action to make arrangements to conduct fresh election in Tamil Nadu.
The writing on the wall is crystal clear that the DMK is going to sweep the polls if and when it happens in this southern state of India.
[Syed Ali Mujtaba is a journalist based in Chennai. He can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org]