Ahmedabad: Muslims should learn to protest over social, health and employment related issues other than Uniform Civil Code not only in Gujarat but also in the country. Modi land -- Gujarat shows the way. Cutting across caste lines once again after an agitation for stricter anti-liquor law in Gujarat, Patidar, OBC and Dalit youth leadership joined hands on the issue of unemployment holding Berojgar Yatra (unemployment march) from Becharaji in Mehsana to the Collector office near Sabarmati Ashram in Ahmedabad. They have asked the Gujarat government to ensure that 85 per cent jobs were given to Gujarati youths by companies investing in the state. But no Muslim leader was present in this rally. Gujarat Muslims are still in deep slumber even after 2002 riots. No pressure group formed by Muslims for political dealing for the community as election in the state may be advanced.
The BJP is contemplating early Gujarat assembly polls to cash in on the recent demonetisation decision, as it believes people perceive the move as a big-ticket initiative of Prime Minister Narendra Modi against black money. The elections are due in December next year, but the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is said to be considering advancing the dates by at least six months, party sources said. Discussions are in progress among top BJP and RSS leaders, they added.
Frequent visits by the Prime Minister to Gujarat -- he has come five times in recent months -- as well as that of national party President Amit Shah, have given strength to the speculations of early polls which were already going on for some time. In all, Modi has visited Gujarat eight times since he became Prime Minister. Shah is at present in Ahmedabad holding "chintan baithaks" (strategy meetings) with state party seniors recently. Meanwhile, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat is camping in Gujarat, heading a four-day "pracharak meeting" and is believed to be focusing on the tribal belt of the state.
"We believe the general mood among the people in the state is strongly in favour of Narendrabhai despite all the difficulties caused by demonetisation. They see a dedicated effort to curb black money and fight terrorism," said a senior BJP leader.
The leader, who is privy to the discussions within the party, says that with the passage of time, this mood may not last and "so it is better to go for early elections, along with that in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Goa".
Party leaders feel the Congress, which has been out of power for over two decades, has yet not been able to rustle up public opinion against demonetisation in Gujarat or to build up any local issue against the state government.
BJP top brass feel that the best way to counter Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress is by throwing up a leader belonging to Other Backward Class (OBC) as the party’s chief ministerial candidate. Nearly 45% of the state’s population falls under various OBC categories. This includes 32.5% percentage in rural areas. An OBC chief ministerial candidate could hugely upset the Congress and AAP calculations. It could also consolidate the OBCs against the Patidars who are demanding affirmative action. However, the only catch is, would the public be ready to accept a third chief minister from the same party in a year’s time? Asenior BJP leader told, “No announcement in this regard is likely to come in before end of January but there definitely is a movement to prepone polls in Gujarat.
The general consensus is ‘Narendra Modi has introduced demonetisation to check black money and terrorism’. The BJP feels that as days pass, this pro-BJP sentiment in Gujarat could convert into skepticism. The Patidars and their andolan is a major issue in Gujarat. The Patels are not in majority in Gujarat but they can stake claim for maximum political influence. Out of 182 seats, 37 Patidars are elected MLAs. Patels can influence up to 80 Assembly seats in Gujarat. At present, Patel leader Hardik has been banned by the courts from entering Gujarat.
Anandiben Patel was unceremoniously dropped and Rupani was made the CM in her stead. This, however, has not calmed the social unrest, especially of Dalits and Patidars in Gujarat. Over the months, this unrest is only likely to accelerate to BJP’s disadvantage. 6. Gujaratis are oriented towards entrepreneurship. Of late, the economy has been facing a slump. In coming days, the micro-, small-, and mediumscale (MSM) industry is going to be impacted further. The Congress in Gujarat has yet not got its act together. In urban areas, even if there is a disillusionment towards the BJP, there is no new-found love for the Congress.
The state Congress leaders have so far done nothing concrete to tap the frustration of the common man (and woman) following demonetisation. And perhaps the most important reason why BJP is contemplating early polls in Gujarat could be the growing influence of Aam Aadmi Party. First, AAP captured the imagination of the politically and economically influential Patidars in Gujarat. Then, the Dalits after the tragic flogging in Una. Slowly and steadily, AAP has made significant inroads in rural Gujarat and among youth and women in urban Gujarat.
If AAP does well in Punjab and Goa, their presence in Gujarat could increase manifold. Indications of an early election in Gujarat 1. Increased political activity. The prime minister has visited Gujarat four times in less than two months. This could be a sign of the party wanting to seek an early mandate. The prime minister’s last visit to Banaskantha throws up the probability of an OBC leader being pushed by the BJP. Banaskantha is the home state of BJP leader Shankar Chaudhry. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also belongs to OBC. In Congress, the OBC faction is represented by party president Bharatsinh Solanki.. Increased political activity by the Congress,
Hardik Patel plans to further consolidate the Patidar agitation. AAP has begun an outreach programme which has been well-received even in urban areas of Gujarat. . Increased activity and ground work by RSS including shibirs and personal outreach programme. The personal guidance of RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat to bring back tribals into the Hindutva fold, besides organising Hindu sammelans. PM Modi will be spending more time for the Vibrant Gujarat summit. The forthcoming Vibrant Gujarat 2017 is being publicised more than what it was in 2015 held under the chief ministership of Anandiben Patel. Revamped prohibition policy in tune of Bihar model as demanded by the Patidars and OBCs in the state
Rubbishing speculations about the possibility of an early Assembly elections in Gujarat, state Chief Minister Vijay Rupani recently said the polls would be held as per schedule, during the later part of this year. Rupani also blamed Congress for spreading 'rumours' about early polls, which, according to him, is the opposition party's strategy to keep their workers busy.
"I do not see any possibility of early Assembly polls. I believe that elections will be held on schedule. This is just a rumour spread by Congress to keep their workers busy. Otherwise, I don't believe that polls will be held early," Rupani told reporters in Ahmedabad after a function.
Since the sudden change of guard in August last year, when Rupani took over the reins from Anandiben Patel, Gujarat Congress leaders have been claiming there is a possibility that the elections in Gujarat may take place early.
Gujarat Congress president Bharatsinh Solanki had on some occasions claimed that polls may be held early. He even asked the party cadres to gear up for early polls.
"BJP will face severe defeat in UP and Punjab, where polls will be held in the mid of 2017. BJP may not want to cloud their prospects in Gujarat with those defeats. Thus, it is highly possible that polls in Gujarat would take place simultaneously with Punjab and UP," Solanki had recently claimed.
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