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New Delhi: With the
prospect of regional rivalries intensifying over Afghanistan,
China is thinking of proposing a trilateral dialogue among New
Delhi, Beijing and Islamabad on Afghanistan, a tricky proposition
given the rivalry between India and Pakistan in the Afghan
theatre.
"Many Chinese scholars have proposed the idea. The Ministry of
Foreign Affairs of China is keen on this trilateral dialogue,"
Zhang Jiadong, assistant director of the Centre for American
Studies in Fudan University and a well regarded Chinese expert on
international affairs, told IANS here.
With the 2014 drawdown of US-led international combat troops from
Afghanistan in mind, China is pushing for greater regional
cooperation to stabilize Afghanistan, an approach India has always
supported.
Zhang said although China's involvement in Afghanistan is now
limited, it is planning to expand its diplomatic and economic
footprint in the country.
"We are going to become more proactive in Afghanistan. Some
Chinese scholars are suggesting a bigger role for China in
Afghanistan," Zhang, who is visiting India, said.
Compared to India pledging $2 billion for multifarious
reconstruction activities in Afghanistan ranging from building
hospitals, roads and schools to the parliament building, China's
involvement in Afghanistan has remained primarily economic.
Chinese state-owned companies have invested in copper mines and
struck a lucrative energy deal in Afghanistan. But with the
growing stakes in the Afghan endgame, this is set to change.
But what should gladden New Delhi is China's positive view of
India's reconstruction activities in Afghanistan. "There is a
difference of perception between China and Pakistan on this," said
Zhang.
China recognises India as a key player in shaping Afghanistan in
2014, said Shen Xiaochen of Lanzhou University. In the post-2014
scenario, Shen said, China is sceptical of continued international
assistance for Afghanistan. He stressed that against this
backdrop, there should be greater cooperation between India and
China for the stability of the violence-torn country.
Zhang, however, replied vaguely when asked how the dialogue among
India, China and Pakistan will play out given the deep suspicion
Islamabad has about New Delhi's multifarious activities in that
country which the Pakistani military establishment tends to regard
as its strategic depth.
China's all-weather friendship with Pakistan and the incestuous
military ties between the two countries is going to be another
complicating factor if such a trilateral dialogue were to see the
light of the day.
The rivalry between India and Pakistan over influence in
Afghanistan is well-known and it is going to only intensify in the
wake of the phased withdrawal of US-led multinational ISAF forces
bu 2014.
India fears a Taliban takeover as it will mean the installation of
a hostile regime in Kabul which will be remote-controlled by
Pakistan's ISI-military establishment. China fears that a
Taliban-ruled Afghanistan may give sanctuary to the separatist
group, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, led by ethnic Uighurs,
and impinge on the stability of its border regions in Xinjiang.
With Afghan stability in mind and its larger ambitions in the
region, China, said Zhang, is trying to pursue a balancing act
between its relations with India and Pakistan. "Economically, we
have closer ties with Pakistan. Militarily, we are closer to
Pakistan. But we want stronger relations with both the countries,"
he said.
While the prospects of a trilateral among India, Pakistan and
China on Afghanistan look remote and problematic for now,
consultations between New Delhi and Beijing on
Afghanistan-Pakistan issues have already started.
"There are good prospects of cooperation between India and China
on Afghanistan. The dialogue has already begun," Srikanth
Kondapallui, a China expert at Jawaharlal Nehru University, told
IANS.
Besides the threat from Taliban-associated militant networks in
the region, what promises to bring India and China closer on
Afghanistan is a shared investment-driven approach towards
stabilising the violence-torn country.
New Delhi hosted a regional investors' conclave on Afghanistan in
April which was also attended by some Chinese companies.
(Manish Chand can be contacted at manish.c@ians.in)
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