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New Delhi:
Arabs are groping for new models of governance in the wake of
uprisings that began in 2010 that led to regime changes in some
countries, an international expert has suggested.
They have few models of governance to choose from, and that could
be Turkish, Iranian or Iraqi, but they are still grappling to find
one, said Iranian-Canadian political scientist Ramin Jahanbegloo
at the India International Centre here Friday evening.
The threat of turning the region into further turmoil and chaos
stalks the Arabs as they ponder over their uncertainties, said
Jahanbegloo at an interactive session. A mass uprising against
long-time dictators of the Arab world had forced then Egyptian
president Hosni Mubarak to step down and violently ended Muammar
Gaddafi's rule in Libya.
The uprising also spread to Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Algeria, Jordan
and Qatar. In Syria, some 65,000 people died as anti-government
protests raged in the country to oust the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
"Within each country there are interests groups, like the
Islamists and liberals, fighting to gain power over the other.
Hence it will not be easy for the Arabs to find an effective
model," said Jahanbegloo.
"The mood in the Arab world is changing from euphoria to
pessimism, as serious questions begin to emerge regarding the
model of governance," he said. "The Arab spring is turning into a
long winter and people are in no mood of a revolution,"
Jahanbegloo said.
In the last election in Egypt, the victory margin was very narrow
and that shows the challenges the government of Mohammed Morsi is
facing in uniting people cutting across the political spectrum.
"Which is why the current Egyptian government is finding it
difficult to enforce itself," Jahanbegloo said. The Islamists had
gained a slight edge over the secular groups in the last election.
Only about 43 percent of eligible voters voted as there was a
growing disillusionment among the people, he said.
Referring to Iran, another key player vying for power and
influence in the region, Jahanbegloo said its economy had decline
by 90 percent under the weight of Western sanctions and Arab
turmoil.
He said the Iranian model of governance will also find little
favour among the Arabs like the Turkish and Iraqi models because
of the geopolitical realities and the complex Shia-Sunni dynamics.
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