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2019 Jharkhand Polls: Vote share projections suggest close contest

However, a higher vote share does not necessarily translate into more electoral wins

Wednesday November 27, 2019 7:18 PM, IANS

Jharkhand Election Survey

New Delhi: If the seat share projections by the IANS-CVoter Jharkhand Opinion Poll indicate some ambiguity over how close the fight could be between the ruling BJP and the opposition alliance of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in the coming Assembly polls in the state, the vote share projections establish the point unequivocally.

Under a table titled, 'Alliance projected votes: Vidhan Sabha 2019: If there are suitable alliances of all major parties', the opinion poll suggests a vote share of 33.3 per cent for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Arraigned against it is the alliance comprising the JMM (preojected vote share of 18.8 per cent as per November tracker), Congress (projected vote share of 12.4 per cent) and RJD, which has not been listed separately -- but the vote share projection listed under "others" in the opinion poll shows 23.2 per cent.

This means that against 33.3 per cent vote share of the BJP, the alliance comprising the JMM and Congress could corner 31.2 per cent of the vote share and the RJD some more on its own.

The Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM), which had allied with the JMM and Congress in 2014, is projected to have a vote share of 7.7 per cent, according to the opinion poll while the All Jharkhand Students' Union (AJSU), a former ally of the BJP in the state, is projected to get 4.6 per cent of the vote share in the coming Assembly polls to be held in five phases between November 30 and December 20. Counting of votes has been scheduled for December 23.

Linking vote share with seats won is complicated and a higher vote share does not necessarily translate into more electoral wins. For instance, in the 2014 state Assembly polls, the JMM-INC-JVM got 40.8 per cent of the votes but came behind the BJP-AJSU combine which got 35 per cent of the votes. The BJP and AJSU together got 42 seats in 2014. The half way mark in the 81-member Assembly is 41 seats.

"Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter daily tracking poll conducted during last seven days among 18+ adults statewide, including likely voters...," Team CVoter said.

Jharkhand will see a 5-phase Assembly election from November 30. Second phase polling will take place on December 7. The third, fourth and fifth phases of polling will take place on December 12, 16 and 19, respectively.

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