China may resort to Indian territory grab, says expert report
Wednesday February 29, 2012 02:09:59 PM,
IANS
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New Delhi: China may resort to territorial grabs,
including through a "major military offensive", especially in Arunachal Pradesh or Ladakh in Jammu and Kashmir, and India should
respond with "a strategy of quid pro quo", says a report by an
independent group of Indian analysts.
"Our frontiers with China have been mostly stable for some years
now. However, China could assert its territorial claims
(especially in the Arunachal sector or Ladakh) by the use of
force," says the report that seeks to outline a foreign and
strategic policy for India in the 21st century.
"There is the possibility that China might resort to territorial
grabs. The most likely areas for such bite-sized operations are
those parts of the Line of Actual Control where both sides have
different notions of where the LAC actually runs. These places are
known," says the report.
The report contends that India can't "entirely dismiss the
possibility of a major military offensive in Arunachal Pradesh or
Ladakh".
The report entitled "Non-Alignment 2.0: A Foreign and Strategic
Policy for the 21st century", was unveiled Tuesday evening at a
panel discussion at Hotel Ashok in which National Security Adviser
Shiv Shankar Menon and his immediate predecessors M.K. Narayanan,
currently West Bengal governor, and Brajesh Mishra participated.
"China will, for the foreseeable future, remain a significant
foreign policy and security challenge for India. It is the one
major power which impinges directly on India's geopolitical space.
As its economic and military capabilities expand, its power
differential with India is likely to widen," says the publication
in a chapter entitled "The Asian Theatre".
The debate on India's options in dealing with an emerging China,
among other things, has coincided with the two-day visit of
Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi to India that began
Wednesday.
The report goes on to say that in case of a military offensive or
territorial grab, India will need "a mix of defensive and
offensive capabilities" to restore the status quo ante.
"Indeed, given the fact that the combat ratio and logistical
networks favour China and that the attacker will always have the
advantage of tactical (if not strategic) surprise, we will need a
mix of defensive and offensive capabilities to leverage the
advantages the terrain offers."
The better way of responding to limited land grabs by China, the
report suggests, is for India to take similar action across the
LAC: a strategy of quid pro quo. These areas should be identified
and earmarked for limited offensive operations on our part, the
report recommends.
In the event of a major offensive by China, the report suggests
India should not resort to a strategy of proportionate response.
"Rather we should look to leverage our asymmetric capabilities to
convince the Chinese to back down."
The report recommends that India must prepare itself to trigger an
insurgency in the areas occupied by Chinese forces and to develop
the capability to interdict the logistics and military
infrastructure in Tibet.
The report outlines other strategies to counter the Chinese
offensive which includes accelerating the integration of the
frontier regions and its people by speeding up and improving
communication infrastructure with the mainland and to expand naval
capabilities in the Indian Ocean region.
"Due to the multiplicity of the agencies involved, there is need
to establish a Maritime Commission. The crucial decision we face
here concerns the quantum of additional resources that we must
devote to developing our maritime power."
The report has been co-authored by a group of analysts comprising
Shyam Saran, former foreign secretary and special envoy to Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh; Nandan Nilekani, chairman of Unique
Identity Development Authority of India; Lt General (retired)
Prakash Menon, military advisor to the National Security Council
Secretariat; Sunil Khilnani, professor of history at King's
College, London's India Institute; Pratap Bhanu Mehta, president,
Centre for Policy Research (CPR); Rajiv Kumar, FICCI secretary
general; Srinath Raghavan, senior fellow at CPR; and Siddharth
Vardarajan (Editor, The Hindu).
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