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Why did Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra jump
into the election fray in Uttar Pradesh, breaking her long absence
from active politics? Is it to give Rahul Gandhi a helping hand or
to let everyone know that she, a one-time favourite of the masses,
is also preparing for 2014, the year of the general election?
This is one of the teasers which makes the poll scene so
intriguing if only because everything is currently very much up in
the air, so to speak, in Uttar Pradesh - the state through which
the road runs to Delhi, according to common perception. It is also
in the fitness of things that the photogenic brother and sister
should be using the state, their home province, to jointly make
their presence felt after a long time.
Another teaser is Uma Bharati's virtual selection as the Bharatiya
Janata Party's (BJP) chief ministerial nominee in the state. Was
it a ploy to sideline Rajnath Singh even though his candidature
had already been ruled out by Nitin Gadkari, who replaced Singh as
the BJP president in 2009? But will the choice of an OBC (other
backward castes) leader for the top post displease the Brahmins
and induce them to turn to the Congress? The jury, as the saying
goes, is out.
The tripping up of Rajnath Singh is not the only example of
Gadkari's fancy footwork. He has also put Goa's prospective chief
ministerial candidate, Manohar Parrikar, on the defensive by
propping up a possible challenger, Shripad Yesso Naik, an MP.
Apparently, Gadkari hasn't forgotten that Parrikar was briefly
considered by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) as a
replacement for Rajnath Singh before it chose the apparatchik from
Maharashtra, who was then little known outside his home province,
as the BJP chief.
There are other teasers as well. How worried is the Congress about
the Salman Rushdie affair? There is little doubt that if the
elections were not so near, especially the contest in Uttar
Pradesh with its large Muslim population, the author of "The
Satanic Verses" would have come and gone, as he had done earlier,
with few outside the chattering classes taking much note.
But asking Rushdie to stay away will hurt the party's liberal
credentials - especially when the travails of Facebook and Google
suggest that freedom of expression is not on the Congress'
priority list.
The reason for such uncertainties is all the greater because the
Congress does not have a secure base in Uttar Pradesh unlike
Mayawati, who has with her the Dalits, especially the Jatavs or
Chamars, with the latter comprising 13-14 percent of the
population. Or Mulayam Singh Yadav, who has the OBCs and
particularly the Yadavs with him, who make up eight to nine
percent of the population while the OBCs and the MBCs (most
backward castes) account for more than 50 percent. Moreover, since
the Congress is engaged in weaning away the Muslims from Mayawati
as well as Mulayam Singh, and the upper castes from Mayawati and
the BJP, it has to play its hand with a great deal of care.
Unlike Uttar Pradesh where the fog of the electoral war is quite
thick, the Punjab scene is relatively clear since there are only
two major parties, the Congress and the Akali Dal, which have held
power alternately. Since the latter has been in power for the last
five years, it is supposed to be the Congress' turn now, not least
because even in 2007, the Congress' vote share of 40.9 percent was
substantially higher than the Akali Dal's 37 percent.
In terms of seats too, the Congress with 44 was only four seats
fewer than the Akali Dal's tally. It was only the BJP's good
showing - it won 19 seats with 8.2 percent votes - which enabled
the Akalis to form the government. But the BJP's prospects are
less rosy this time because of corruption charges which made it
drop four of its sitting legislators.
If there is a teaser in Punjab, it is the presence of the People's
Party which is making its electoral debut in alliance with the
communists and the Akali Dal (Longowal) although these are
essentially nonentities. But the People's Party leader, Manpreet
Singh Badal, cannot be classified as such because the former
finance minister of the state created quite a stir when he
resigned from the Akali Dal on account of its "wasteful" populism.
He has now fielded Prakash Singh Badal's younger brother, Gurdas
Badal, against the veteran leader. Considering the chief minister
won by only about 9,000 votes last time, the contest in Lambi will
arouse considerable interest.
It isn't only in Punjab where there are fraternal fights - Prakash
Singh vs Gurdas, Amrinder Singh of the Congress vs his brother,
Malvinder. In Manipur, Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh's nephew,
Okram Henry, is fighting the chief minister's rival Erabot Singh
in Wangkhei, showing that the Congress is a house divided in the
state.
Amulya Ganguli is a political analyst. He can be
reached at amulyaganguli@gmail.com
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