We are looking forward to the Indian Prime Minister Modi's visit to Washington early next week. This will be Mr. Modi's 5th visit to the USA in just over 3 years since he became prime minister. This is a record in itself - a head of state to dash so frequently to the USA. We believe this visit is an effort to establish political rapport with the new American Administration, especially its President Mr. Trump. The timing of this visit has no special significance except that Delhi is a bit hotter despite being respectful to Paris accord.
It is normal to expect a few political and economic negations between the heads of the state during such visits. Possible impact of the PM's visit on the Indian geo-political scene and bilateral trade including defense contracts are noteworthy. Mr. Modi is expected to bring up issues relating to H1B visa, the Chinese OBOR initiative and its impact on India and the USA in the context of south China sea fiasco, the defense contracts and trade of goods and services.
In this context let us review if Mr. Modi will be negotiating with Mr. Trump from the position of strength or otherwise. Mr. Modi's previous visits to the US and to many other European countries were anchored on two favorable standpoints namely that India is a large market with domestic economic momentum where international investments would benefit both. Secondly, India's role as a player in geo-politics with a rightful and a very certain claim to the membership into the UN security council as well as the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
Yet, on the economic market front, India has seen only a marginal gain in FDI and FII investments much short of the hyped expectations for the past three years under Mr. Modi's watch. The bilateral trade advantage favoring India has continued with the USA, but only around $ 114 billion total trade per annum; yet at a reduced annual level of advantage during the last three years. For example, the average annual increase in Indian export to the US is about $6 billion during last three years; as opposed to $7 billion during 2003 and 20013. India's "Make in India", and America's "Buy America" policies seems directly confronting each other and such rhetoric can jeopardize pure economic fundamentals of manufacturing, hiring and trading of goods and services.
India, at the turn of the century, was looking for second and third generation reforms and consistent efforts towards them are rather difficult; except for the GST and opening the defense industry to international investment. Ironically these are the same policy changes the BJP blocked when they were in the opposition. It is not assured that these reforms will benefit the US industry notwithstanding the likely purchase of 22 unarmed drones valued over $2 billion; this is a trifle in India's annual defense budget of $54 billion. Besides, India has already committed defense purchases from Russia, Israel and France. While there is a proposal to manufacture F16 in India; is it not surprising to note that US has already committed F35 to Pakistan?
Therefore, Mr. Modi is making his 5th visit to the USA from the position of weakness. If the officials in the US are to be believed, Mr. Modi has forced himself to be invited by a less enthusiastic White House. Unfortunately, Mr. Modi has been a failure in several fronts:
1. The worst has been India's failure in international relations. Despite whirlwind official tours to 46 countries Mr. Modi has not gained a single noteworthy advantage from any country except Bangladesh so far. Even Nepal and Sri Lanka have shown the door to India's interference in their policies. The last hope for India is in Maldives! Mr. Modi has miserably failed to build bridges with super powers to get a seat at the UN security Council and Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). He has made a serious mistake by staying out of OBOR potentially damaging the long term economic benefits. The 2017 has been particularly bad for India's relations with Pakistan which have come as close as a declaration of war.
2. The sectoral growth in the Indian economy during 2016-17 is lower than previous years due to the impact of demonetization. Demonetization neither helped bring back black money nor has it curtailed corruption as claimed. The Indian economy has grown for the past three years partly because of low global oil and gas prices - largely due to the infusion of American Shale oil.
3. Some of the noteworthy social policies initiated by Mr. Modi have fallen flat. For example the expected ˜Swachatha" from the ˜Swatchha Bharat", and "Sath" and "Vikas" from the "Sab Kaa Sath and Sab Kaa Vikas" ended up being a pipe dreams for all Indian citizens. Anti-conversion law, beef ban, the triple talaaq, anti-Dalit movements, stifling of religious freedom - all working overtime to exclude millions of minorities and downtrodden from the mainstream social space and from government programs.
The Indian government between 2004 and 2014 succeeded in building a rare unified rapport internationally with the support from both political parties in the USA. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's leadership brought the world leaders to consider India as a deserving member of the UN Security Council. Ever since the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power making Mr. Narendra Modi as Prime Minister, the decisions of his government and the free-hand offered to vigilante groups to implement obsolete and inhuman Hindutva ideology causing intimidation, harassment and even lynching religious minorities has caused irreparable damage to India's image internationally.
RSS continues to attack Christian church goers in one part of the country or the other almost every day. The state governments run by BJP are engaged in actively shutting down churches and church run organizations. Earlier this year, Modi government shutdown Compassion International, a US based Christian charity, leaving 165,000 poor children with no other help. Modi government has suppressed sensible voices and ideas from academics, civil society activists, international NGOs, and even Student organizations.
Had there been anyone else as the Prime Minister instead of Mr. Modi, India would not have lost its standing in the world. They could have benefited from the trajectory Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had set for India. Even Mr. Jaitley or Mr. Rajnath Singh from Mr. Modi's own party could have done a better job in bringing better economic and political benefits to India with these many air miles.
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