Even as all efforts are on by the Election Commission for the smooth
counting tomorrow on May 16 for the 541 parliamentary constituencies
that went to poll in five phases starting from April 16, 2009,
speculations are rife into the air about who will emerge as the
single largest party or group so as to claim the formation of the
next government at the centre.
Amid anticipations and
hectic activities for post-poll alliances in the political circles,
some bitter questions are also taking the rounds specially about the
results in Gujarat. Abdul Hafiz Lakhani has tried to
questions for ummid.com readers.
1. According to 2007 assembly election results, BJP should win 21
Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat. Will BJP be able to repeat assembly
2. As per a new delimitation, L. K. Advani’s Gandhinagar Lok Sabha
constituency has 7 lakh lesser voters compare to 2004 elections. So
it is all possible that his victory margin will be lower this time
in numbers compare to previous election. However percentage wise,
Advani has consistently got 59 to 61 % vote share in Gandhinagar.
So, will it be similar this time?
3. What would be a fashionable statement of Mallika Sarabhai after
loosing the election and deposit both?
4. How many of the three central Ministers contesting from Gujarat
will win? Shankarsinh Vaghela, Dinsha Patel, Naran Rathwa? All three
have spent huge bucks to win. While Vaghela is outsider candidate in
Godhra and Dinsha faces anti-incumbency, Rathwa is facing photo
finish fight from rival Ex-BJP MP.
5. When whole Gujarat’s theaters and multiplexes had taken united
stand on not showing Aamir Khan’s film Fanaa protesting his stand on
Narmada Project, Jamnagar’s Congress MP Vikram Madam released Fanaa
in his theater. One Brahmin Gujarat-lover-youth protested Madam’s
act by self immolation and died. Fanaa’s producer Yash Chopra
ensured exit of Fanaa from Madam’s theater immediately after this,
but Madama didn’t apologize for his act. This Congress man Madam
should loose. Will he loose, or win?
6. There are several sitting MLAs in fray this election.
By-elections are sure to come within next six months in Gujarat as
(1) Some of the sitting MLAs would win and vacate assembly seat, (2)
MLA Bhavsinh Rathod who is contesting on Patan seat from BJP has
already resigned from the assembly and (3) Chotila’s Congress MLA
Popatbhai Jinjariya recently passed away. So which MLAs will win?
Mukesh Gadhv i(Banaskantha-Congress), Jagdish Thakor(Patan-Congress),
Shailesh Parmar (Ahmedabad West-Congress), Devusinh
Chauhan(Kheda-BJP), Dinubhai Solanki (BJP-Junagadh), Vitthal
Radadiya (Porbandar-Congress), Kunvarjibhai Bavaliya (Rajkot-Congress)?
Who and how many?
7. Gordhan Zadafia who could not tolerate Narendra Modi and left BJP
to form right-wing Maha Gujarat Janata Party is hoping to win from
Bhavnagar. Will this candidate banking on Patel votes win? His
party’s half a dozen other candidates are also in fray in various
constituencies. How many of MJP’s candidate will loose deposits? How
many of MJP’s candidates will come out as decisive or spoiling
factor? MJP’s one of the most prominent candidates is Fakirbhai
Chauhan who is contesting Surat seat. How many votes he would be
able to secure?
8. Since 1984, Gujarat has not elected even a single Muslim MP. This
election, Muslims including Congress President Sonia Gandhi’s
political adviser Ahmed Patel have worked hard to ensure victory of
Congress candidate Aziz Tankarvi from Bharuch. Tankarvi is editor of
Gujarati daily Gujarat Today which is famous among Muslims in
Gujarat. However BJP’s sitting tribal MP Mansukh Vasava is very
strong. Will Muslim mass voting work? Or Vasava will win again? Will
Gujarat elect a Muslim MP?