Indian Election - On the counting day May 16, all eyes on Gujarat

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On 16th May, all eyes on Gujarat

Friday May 15, 2009, Abdul Hafiz Lakhani

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Aman Ki Talaash Mein

Ahmedabad: Even as all efforts are on by the Election Commission for the smooth counting tomorrow on May 16 for the 541 parliamentary constituencies that went to poll in five phases starting from April 16, 2009, speculations are rife into the air about who will emerge as the single largest party or group so as to claim the formation of the next government at the centre.

Amid anticipations and hectic activities for post-poll alliances in the political circles, some bitter questions are also taking the rounds specially about the results in Gujarat. Abdul Hafiz Lakhani has tried to summaries these questions for ummid.com readers.

1. According to 2007 assembly election results, BJP should win 21 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat. Will BJP be able to repeat assembly performance?

2. As per a new delimitation, L. K. Advani’s Gandhinagar Lok Sabha constituency has 7 lakh lesser voters compare to 2004 elections. So it is all possible that his victory margin will be lower this time in numbers compare to previous election. However percentage wise, Advani has consistently got 59 to 61 % vote share in Gandhinagar. So, will it be similar this time?

3. What would be a fashionable statement of Mallika Sarabhai after loosing the election and deposit both?

4. How many of the three central Ministers contesting from Gujarat will win? Shankarsinh Vaghela, Dinsha Patel, Naran Rathwa? All three have spent huge bucks to win. While Vaghela is outsider candidate in Godhra and Dinsha faces anti-incumbency, Rathwa is facing photo finish fight from rival Ex-BJP MP.

5. When whole Gujarat’s theaters and multiplexes had taken united stand on not showing Aamir Khan’s film Fanaa protesting his stand on Narmada Project, Jamnagar’s Congress MP Vikram Madam released Fanaa in his theater. One Brahmin Gujarat-lover-youth protested Madam’s act by self immolation and died. Fanaa’s producer Yash Chopra ensured exit of Fanaa from Madam’s theater immediately after this, but Madama didn’t apologize for his act. This Congress man Madam should loose. Will he loose, or win?

6. There are several sitting MLAs in fray this election. By-elections are sure to come within next six months in Gujarat as (1) Some of the sitting MLAs would win and vacate assembly seat, (2) MLA Bhavsinh Rathod who is contesting on Patan seat from BJP has already resigned from the assembly and (3) Chotila’s Congress MLA Popatbhai Jinjariya recently passed away. So which MLAs will win? Mukesh Gadhv i(Banaskantha-Congress), Jagdish Thakor(Patan-Congress), Shailesh Parmar (Ahmedabad West-Congress), Devusinh Chauhan(Kheda-BJP), Dinubhai Solanki (BJP-Junagadh), Vitthal Radadiya (Porbandar-Congress), Kunvarjibhai Bavaliya (Rajkot-Congress)? Who and how many?

7. Gordhan Zadafia who could not tolerate Narendra Modi and left BJP to form right-wing Maha Gujarat Janata Party is hoping to win from Bhavnagar. Will this candidate banking on Patel votes win? His party’s half a dozen other candidates are also in fray in various constituencies. How many of MJP’s candidate will loose deposits? How many of MJP’s candidates will come out as decisive or spoiling factor? MJP’s one of the most prominent candidates is Fakirbhai Chauhan who is contesting Surat seat. How many votes he would be able to secure?

8. Since 1984, Gujarat has not elected even a single Muslim MP. This election, Muslims including Congress President Sonia Gandhi’s political adviser Ahmed Patel have worked hard to ensure victory of Congress candidate Aziz Tankarvi from Bharuch. Tankarvi is editor of Gujarati daily Gujarat Today which is famous among Muslims in Gujarat. However BJP’s sitting tribal MP Mansukh Vasava is very strong. Will Muslim mass voting work? Or Vasava will win again? Will Gujarat elect a Muslim MP?

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