Mehmood Madni
Addressing the press after visiting Malegaon that was rocked
by a bomb blast on September 29, 2008 two days before Eid Al
Fitr
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Except in 1980, when the percentage of Muslim MPs in the Lok Sabha —
9 per cent — was roughly equivalent to the percentage of Muslims in
the Indian population — 11.4 per cent according to the 1981 census —
this minority has always been under-represented in Parliament. The
gap increased in the late ’80s, to fall to about 5 per cent in the
’90s, the decade when the BJP remained the first party in the Lok
Sabha for quite some time; it then increased slightly in 1999 and
2004 thanks to the good performance of parties which had nominated a
large number of Muslim candidates, mainly the BSP and the SP. In the
outgoing Lok Sabha, Muslim MPs represent 6.4 per cent of the total
MPs while Muslims represent 13.4 per cent of the Indian population,
according to the 2001 census.
The situation may not be very different this time if we go by the
candidate lists. There are a very high number of Muslim candidates
in the fray: the fates of about 780 are becoming clear as you read
this. This figure reflects the will to take part in the political
process of the world’s largest democracy, a will also reflected in
the usually high turn-out of Muslim voters that retain faith in the
electoral process, even, and especially, post-Ayodhya. But in most
of the states — including Muslim-majority J&K — the percentage of
Muslim candidates is far below the percentage of Muslims in the
general population. In Assam, where Muslims represent 30 per cent of the population, they are 19 per
cent; in UP, where Muslims are 18.5 per cent, they are 11 per cent
of candidates; a similar proportion in Bihar strive to represent a
state where Muslims are 16.5 per cent of the population. The only
significant exception is Maharashtra.
More importantly, in most of the states, a majority of Muslim
candidates are independents. In Maharashtra, precisely 52 per cent
contest as independents; in Gujarat and MP, 54 per cent; in Haryana,
66 per cent; in Rajasthan, 80 per cent! These reflect the reluctance
of the parties — especially national parties — to nominate Muslim
candidates. If one does not expect the BJP to behave otherwise (the
party has nominated only 5 Muslims this time) the Congress has never
paid so little attention to Muslims, if that is judged by the
percentage of its candidates that is Muslim.
Excluding in J&K, less than 30 Muslims have been given Congress
tickets this time — an appallingly low number — and interestingly,
none in Maharashtra. Similarly, the communists do not make much room
for Muslim candidates, not in West Bengal, with half a dozen
candidates, nor in Kerala, where there are only a couple of Muslim
candidates on the lists of the CPI and the CPM. The only national
party giving prominence to Muslim candidates is the BSP. In UP, its
stronghold, the BSP has actually nominated more Muslim candidates
than its rival, the SP (13 against 12). Mulayam Singh Yadav might
lose sections of the Muslim vote to the BSP anyway because of the
entry of Kalyan Singh in the party.
In Maharashtra, too, the BSP is the party which has given more
tickets to Muslim candidates than any other party, including the SP
(9 against 6). Similarly, in Karnataka and in Kerala; in the latter
it has given more tickets to Muslim candidates than the communists
and the Muslim League! It is possible that the BSP aims to become
the new political channel of expression for Muslims by
reconstituting the old UP Congress coalition of Brahmins, Dalits and
Muslims. This would certainly be a significant development if it
enables Muslim communities to remain part of the institutional
framework, defusing centrifugal forces which could take the form of
a “Muslim party” or even extra-constitutional modes of action. To
ensure political voice is even more important at a time when this
minority is discriminated against in the labour and housing markets,
as has become evident from recent surveys. One thing to look at in
the results is whether the BSP has a chance at being this voice.
The writer is at CERI,
Sciences Po, Paris and has co-edited ‘Rise of the plebeian? The
changing face of Indian legislative assemblies’. This article was
co-written with Virginie Dutoya, Radhika Kanchana and Gayatri
Rathore.
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