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India-Myanmar relationship is
entering a new era with the visit of
Myanmar’s President Thein Sein to New Delhi. The three day visit
from
Oct 12-15, 2011 of the Myanmar president takes place in a context
of
some crucial development in the neighboring country that may have
an
impact on the bilateral relationship.
Myanmar is no longer a pure military regime. With the elections in
November 2010, a 'civilian' government in place. An elected
parliament
and regional assemblies are functioning under the new
constitution.
Even though the modicum of such democracy may be unconvincing but
the
fact remains the direction of change is apparent. The new
president
has launched a bold programme of political and economic reforms
this
March end, and this has set the ball rolling for the country’s
tryst
with democracy.
The movement for change has gathered momentum in the past three
months. The reconciliation effort with the icon of democracy Aung
San
Suu Kyi, is a positive development.
According to her, President Thein Sein "wants to achieve positive
change and Myanmar is in a situation where changes are likely to
take
place. This is sharp contrast to her previous statement when she
called 2010 elections "a mishap."
The other significant development that is taking place under the
new
government is that dialogue has replaced armed conflict between
the
ethnic minorities and the Myanmar Army.
This again is positive sign because long years of armed conflict
has
not bore any result and the only way of reconciliation is through
dialogue and that what is happening now.
Myanmar’s relations with the West, particularly the US and the EU,
are
improving. Some of the key demands of the western countries are
being
negotiated and its likely that some of them may be accepted by the
government. The release of political prisoners is one such move in
this direction.
The other major development is Myanmar's decision to suspend the
construction of the Myistone dam in the northern Kachin state, a
project meant to supply electricity to China which was being
executed
by a Chinese corporation with massive Chinese investment, has
caused
substantial tensions.
So, one ne has to see in this backdrop the visit of Myanmar
President
U Thein Sein's goodwill visit to India to promote bilateral
relations
and cooperation with the neighbor countries. This is the first
visit
of the incumbent President to India, after assuming presidency on
March 30, 2011.
Relations between India and Myanmar have been growing in the past
few
years. Indian President APJ Abdul Kalam visited Myanmar in 2006
and
then two years later; Vice-President M.Hamid Ansari visited that
country in 2009.
Myanmar's Vice Chairman of the State Peace and Development Council
(SPDC), Vice Senior-General Maung Aye visited India in 2008 and
this
was followed by the visit of the senior leader and Chairman of the
SPDC General Than Shwe visit to India in 2010.
There is little doubt that the visit of President Thein Sein is
significantly different from the visit of his predecessor, Senior
General Than Shwe, visited India last year.
India -Myanmar bilateral trade reached $1.071 billion in 2010-11
and
India stood as Myanmar's fourth largest trading partner after
Thailand, Singapore and China.
India’s export to Myanmar is valued to be $194.92 million, while
import is amounted to $876.91 million.
Agricultural produce and forestry products are leading in imports
to
India. India stands as a major buyer of Myanmar's beans, taking up
70
percent of the latter's exporting agricultural produce. Medicines
and
pharmaceutical products are topping India’s export to Myanmar.
India's contracted investment in Myanmar amounted to 189 million
dollars as of March 2011 of which 137 million were drawn into the
oil
and gas sector in 2007. India stands 13th in Myanmar's foreign
investors' line-up.
Indian Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna signed a memorandum of
understanding on building an industrial training school in
Myanmar's
Myingyan during his visit to Mayanmar’s capital Nay Pyi Taw in
June
2011.
India and Myanmar have committed to the upgrading of border roads
and
maritime transport along the Kaladan River to boost trade. In
December 2010, India has laid the foundation for the construction
of
port and waterway terminal of Multimodal Transit Transport
Project, in
Sittway Township in western Myanmar's Rakhine state.
The Kaladan River project, involving the Indian Inland Waterways
Authority and ESSAR Projects (India) Co Ltd, is expected to be
completed by 2013.
India has also committed to help Myanmar boost the ecotourism
sector
as part of its assistance rendered to countries of the Association
of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) by assisting in maintenance of
ancient
buildings in archeological and historical sites.
In April 2011, India and Myanmar has signed a memorandum of
understanding on cultural cooperation to speed up all-round
renovation
of the Arnanda Pagoda in Myanmar's ancient city of Bagan.
Thein Sein’s visit is more likely to focus on bilateral business
ties.
The presidential entourage includes a large ministerial delegation
and
the presence of major economic ministries in the delegation
underlines
a greater desire to engage and invite India to participate in that
country’s development agenda.
The powerful military is represented by the third senior-most
general
in the armed forces. This is a significant departure from the past
when the military formed a major part of the entourage of senior
general Than Shwe during visits to India last year.
A slew of important agreements on economic and trade matters are
expected to be signed during the visit. As India and Myanmar share
a
border of over 1,600 kilometers, security issues at India’s
northeastern border is like to be discussed with emphasis on
improving
the security environment on respective land borders.
President Thein Sein’s first six months in office have been
remarkable. The Indian visit is going to be litmus test for him.
Living up to the expectations, it is a foregone conclusion that
India-Myanmar ties is reaching to a new level.
Syed Ali Mujtaba is a journalist based in Chennai. He can be
contacted
at syedalimujtaba@yahoo.com
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