Even as the so- called 'end game' in Afghanistan approaches, in the context of the US and allied
forces to withdrawing from Afghanistan by 2014, the future
scenario is being contemplated in terms of the role of India and
Pakistan vying for influence on Afghanistan.
Afghan President Karzai visited
India in October, 2011 and signed the strategic partnership
agreement with special focus on enhancing security co-operation
between the two countries. This was added on to the aid programmes
India has been undertaking in road construction, health and power
infrastructure sectors.
Though it was clearly stated that
`the strategic partnership was not directed against any other
State or group of States`, predictably it caused an adverse
reaction in Pakistan.
Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan
Singh and other senior officials re-assured that the accord merely
formalised existing co-operation in these fields. Similar message
was also exhorted by the Afghan President that this ` great
friendship’ would not affect 'brotherly ties’ with Pakistan, but
Islamabad was not pacified and issued a warning that the Afghan
president may behave more maturely.
Such perceptions highlight a
possible downside of the agreement for India as well, as its
projects and personnel deployed in Afghanistan could become fresh
targets of ire from anti- Indian elements there maybe at the
behest of Pakistan.
According to Pakistan Foreign
Office, there are few overriding objectives for the settlement in
Afghanistan and the first one is it should not lead to a negative
spill-over contributing to further instability inside Pakistan, in
particular causing resentment among Pakistani Pashtuns; -the new
government in Kabul should not be antagonistic to Pakistan or
allow its territory to be used against Pakistani interests.
Translated into actionable policy,
these objectives could mean pursuit of avoiding instability in
Afghanistan by trying to bring in an inclusive government that has
representation from all interested ethnic groups but is not
hostile to Pakistan.
Pakistani policy elite also feel
that too large an Afghan Army or ANSF would be economically
unsustainable and could pose a threat to Pakistan’s interests,
especially in current perception of its composition, its ethnic
imbalance and the absence of adequate Pashtun representation in
its Officer class could be adverse to Pakistan.
The second overriding objective of
Pakistan is it’s reluctant to support the US objectives to crush
the rebellion in the Afghan Pakistan region with the help of
northern alliance. The pressure from the US to act more decisively
against elements like the Haqqani network in North Waziristan is
disliked, as it could enhance a militant backlash from there
hitting adversely against Pakistan’s own internal security.
Pakistan‘s objective is also to
limit Indian presence in Afghanistan to development activities
alone. Any Indian hobnob political or military with the US/ ISAF/NATO,
northern alliance, Russia is being keenly watched by Islamabad.
Any such adventurism in the
‘endgame’ of Afghanistan may nullify the objectives of
reconstruction of Afghanistan for which international support was
drummed up for last ten years or so.
What looks more plausible is that
Pakistani Foreign Policy officials seem willing to accept a
regional framework which seeks neutrality from countries in the
neighbourhood but they remain sceptical as to whether these
countries would stop short of interfering if their own interests
were affected.
In such scenario what are the
options before India. New Delhi will have to proceed cautiously in
this complex mire yet remain flexible to safeguard its national
interests.
The formulation in the Indo Afghan SPA of Oct 4, 2011, with its
emphasis to 'assist’, as mutually determined, in the training,
equipping and capacity building programme for’ ANSF and
institutionalising a mechanism for security dialogue at the level
of National Security Advisers seems appropriate.
This projects India’s abiding
interest to build on its `soft power’ influence on Afghanistan.
And this may entail closer inter-action with the US/ ISAF/NATO to
associate in the post withdrawal scenario that may unfold in the
war torn country.
However, at the same time, India must keep closely evaluating the
ground situation to assess what would be its options if the
Taliban catapult to power in Afghanistan. In the last Taliban
dispensation, India had to close its embassy in Kabul and had
totally withdrawn from there. If the similar scenario occurs once
again, India may loose all the investments it has made in
Afghanistan from last ten years or so.
India also has to keenly watch the deepening ethnic schisms in
Afghan civil society in the wake of Taliban resurgence in
Afghanistan. The impact such developments may have on the
relevance of former Northern Alliance elements like the Hazaras
under leadership of old warlord, Ustad Mohaqiq or the Tajik
factions led by Ustad Atta, the Massod brothers with strongholds
in Takhar, Badakhshan or Amrullah Saleh with his Panjsheris.
The relevance of these players will not dissipate in the
short-term unless they get a toe-hold in any emerging power
sharing arrangement in future Afghanistan.
India’s options of forging or reviving alliances with Russia and
Iran or even Central Asian States emerging as new power brokers in
a situation of disturbed ethnic or sectarian strife in Afghanistan
should not be lost.
However, India’s deepening relationship with the US will allow
India’s independent policy objectives is something that needs to
be carefully watched
In such complex ethno political turf of Afghanistan the best
possible option before India and Pakistan is to eschew competition
and work for a peaceful and stable Afghanistan. The effort should
be to form an inclusive government, accommodating different ethnic
elements.
Such reasonable approaches at
reconciliation could open up, what now seems a somewhat utopian
possibility of Indo- Pak co-ordinated effort, with US backing, for
peace and stability in Afghanistan.
Syed Ali
Mujtaba is a journalist based in Chennai. He recently participated
in an international seminar debating political future of
Afghanistan in New Delhi. He can be contacted at syedalimujtaba@yhoo.com
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