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India in Recession, RBI admits for first time

India has entered into a technical recession in the first half of 2020-21 for the first time in its history, the RBI says

Thursday November 12, 2020 4:37 PM, ummid.com with inputs from IANS

India in Recession

Mumbai: India has technically entered into a recession with a likely contraction in its GDP during the July-September period, according to a report by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

RBI's Economic Activity Index estimates that India's GDP growth for the second quarter of the current financial year was negative and the GDP contracted by 8.6 per cent during the quarter.

"India has entered into a technical recession in the first half of 2020-21 for the first time in its history with Q2:2020-21 likely to record the second successive quarter of GDP contraction," it said.

The contraction is ebbing with gradual normalisation in activities and expected to be short-lived.

The RBI report said that at a time when global economic activity is besieged by the outbreak of the second wave of Covid-19, incoming data for the month of October 2020 have brightened the near-term outlook for the Indian economy and stirred up consumer and business confidence.

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The RBI report further said:

"Since the assessment of the performance of the Indian economy in the first half of 2020-21 that was presented in the Monetary Policy Report of October 2020, several developments point to a window of respite opening up and an unshackling of economic activity from the grip of Covid-19 as the festival season sets in."

The economy had slumped about 24 per cent in April to June. The government is expected to publish official statistics on November 27.

"There is a grave risk of generalization of price pressures, unanchoring of inflation expectations feeding into a loss of credibility in policy interventions," the economists wrote in the RBI bulletin. They also highlighted risks to global growth from a second wave of coronavirus infections.

"Modi's policies responsible"

Following the publication of the report, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi attacked Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

He said it is for the first time in history, the Indian economy has entered a recession in the first half of 2020-21.

"India has entered into recession for the first time in history. Mr Modi’s actions have turned India’s strength into its weakness", Rahul Gandhi wrote on Twitter, tagging a newspaper report.


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