Voting Options for Uttar Pradesh Muslims in 2024 Parliament Elections
In the five-part series of the voting choices before the Muslims in India, the third write-up looks at the political scenario in India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh where Muslims constitute 19% of the state’s population.
In the five-part series of the voting choices before the Muslims in India, the third write-up looks at the political scenario in India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh where Muslims constitute 19% of the state’s population.
In Uttar Pradesh, out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats, Muslims have only 63 seats to look at, because 17 are reserved constituencies for the Schedule Caste Hindus.
The choice before Muslims in UP is only one and that is the Samajwadi party-Congress alliance that has smaller parties as part of the INDIA block. As per the alliance, Congress is contesting on 17 seats and Samajwadi Party and others are contesting on the remaining 63 seats.
The other choices before the Muslims in UP is the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Communist Party of India (CPI) and of course the BJP. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP got about 10 percent of the Muslim community's votes.
Among the candidates declared by various political parties, the BJP has not given a single ticket to a Muslim candidate. At the same time, the SP and BSP have fielded several Muslims.
The SP-Congress alliance has given tickets to 9 Muslim candidates. Iqra Hasan from Kairana, Shafiqur Rahman Barq from Sambhal, Danish Ali from Saharanpur, Mohammad Irfan Saidi from Moradabad, Zeeshan Khan from Rampur, Shaukat Ali from Sambhal, Mujahid Hussain from Amroha, Abid Ali from Amla, Anees Ahmed Khan, alias Phoolbabu, from Pilibhit
In western Uttar Pradesh, Rampur, Moradabad, and Sambhal, Muslims constitute 23 percent to 42 percent of the electorates. The break up is - Rampur (42 percent), Amroha (32 percent), Saharanpur (30 percent), Bijnor, Nagina, and Moradabad (28 percent each), Muzaffarnagar (27 percent), Kairana and Meerut (23 percent each) and Sambhal (22 percent).
Apart from this, Muslim voters constitute 19 percent of the electoral population in Bulandshahr, Baghpat, and Aligarh.
In the 2019 general elections, the BJP emerged triumphant, securing 62 seats, supplemented by two seats clinched by its ally Apna Dal (S). Whereas the BSP managed to secure 10 seats, while Samajwadi Party could manage only 5 and the Congress only 1.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BSP won the Muslim-Dalit dominated seats of Saharanpur, Bijnor, Nagina, and Amroha seats, while its alliance partner SP won Moradabad, Rampur, and Sambhal seats.
In the 2019 poll, the BSP benefited from the Muslim votes of the SP due to which it was successful in winning 10 seats. However, in the 2022 assembly elections, when there was no alliance between SP and BSP, the Samajwadi Party won many Muslim-dominated seats in western Uttar Pradesh defeating the BSP. This shows the way for the 2024 election.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP got the benefit of a split in Muslim votes in some seats of western UP, and its candidates registered wins from Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, Meerut, Bulandshahr, Baghpat and Aligarh due to Muslims “self-goal.”
In the changed circumstances, the SP-Congress INDIA alliance may likely increase its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. However, the biggest concern for the SP-Congress alliance is how to prevent the scattering of the Muslim votes.
It is high time for the Muslims to get united to vote for the SP-Congress alliance else BJP’s dominance will continue to be a reign of terror for the Muslims in Uttar Pradesh. If Muslims are united it can ensure victory on many Muslim-dominated seats.
This is the first time Uttar Pradesh is witnessing the election without Ram Mandir agenda. This trump card that the BJP held in the past several elections and cashed in is now been dusted after the consecration ceremony of the Ram temple on Jan 22, 2024. This provides some level playing field for the Muslims to go and face the 2024 Lok Sabha election without any handicaps.
The summary of the Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha election is out of a total of 80 seats the BJP may close on to 50 seats and the SP-Congress alliance may get 30 seats. The final submission is the BJP is not going to repeat its performance in 63 Lok Sabha seats that it got in 2019.
[The writer, Syed Ali Mujtaba, is journalist. He can be contacted at syedalimujtaba2007@gmail.com]
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