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2024 Elections: BJP Chances in South India

South India comprises 5 states with Tamil Nadu having 39 seats, Kerala 20 seats, Karnataka 28, Telengana 27 seats, and Andhra Pradesh 25 seats. The total seats from South India are 139 seats out of the 543 seats of the Lok Sabha. Read More

Sunday March 17, 2024 11:37 AM, Syed Ali Mujtaba

South India comprises 5 states with Tamil Nadu having 39 seats, Kerala 20 seats, Karnataka 28, Telengana 27 seats, and Andhra Pradesh 25 seats. The total seats from South India are 139 seats out of the 543 seats of the Lok Sabha.

The News18 Mega Opinion Poll has given 58 seats to the BJP-led alliance, and 53 seats to the Congress-led INDIA alliance. In contrast as a poll observer, my prediction is Congress-led INDIA alliance may bag 74 seats while the BJP-led alliance will get a maximum of 30 seats.

Tamil Nadu

The Mega Opinion Poll conducted by Network18 has predicted that the DMK will lead the INDIA bloc to an impressive haul of 30 seats. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may get 5 seats, while the AIADMK and allies will pick up 4.

But, the prediction of 5 seats given to the BJP seems questionable. The real picture is the BJP has a contest on only two seats in Tamil Nadu that is Kanyakumari and Vellore. It is likely it can win these two seats, may be one, even go blank. In such a case, Congress-led India front may get 37 seats and the BJP just 2 seats.

Kerala

The southern state of Kerala has 20 seats. The News18 Mega Opinion Poll gives the Congress-led INDIA bloc 14 seats, the BJP-led NDA 2 seats, and the LDF 4 seats.

The projection of the BJP winning 2 seats in Kerala is doubtful. This is because historically the saffron party has not won a single seat from Kerala. So in the final analysis, 16 seats will go to the Congress-led INDIA block and 4 seats to LDF.

Karnataka

The third southern state is Karnataka which has 28 seats. According to Network18, the BJP-led NDA coalition is likely to win 25 seats, while the Congress-led INDIA alliance will get only 3 seats.

In the 2019 elections, the BJP won 25 seats while the Congress 3 seats. In the 2014 polls, BJP won 17, Congress 9 and JD(S) 2 seats. In November 2018, by-poll, the Congress won Bellary seat from the BJP.

We all know that since May 2023 Assembly elections, the political scenario in Karnataka has significantly changed. The fortunes of Congress are on ascendance now and it’s in a stronger position in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

In such a case, Network18 poll prediction for 2024, cannot be a repeat of 2019. In such a situation, the probability the Congress-led INDIA is likely to improve its tally while the BJP’s share may drop.

In the given situation, if we take a mean of 2014 and 2019 results, then the tally of BJP may come down to 18 seats, JDS may retain 2 seats giving them 20 seats in Karnataka. The Congress-led INDIA alliance will get 8 seats. In the final analysis, the BJP alliance will get 20 seats and the Congress 8 seats in Karnataka.

Telengana

The next southern state is Telengana which has 27 seats. The News18 Mega Opinion Poll suggests that the BJP-led NDA is going to win 17 seats, while the Congress-led INDIA bloc is expected to win 6 seats, TRS/ BRS to secure 2 and AIMIM 1 seat.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, TRS got 9 seats, BJP 4, Congress 3, and AIMIM 1 seat, as elections were held for 17 Lok Sabha constituencies.

In the 2014 election TRS got 11, the Congress 2, the TDP 1, the BJP 1, YSRCP 1, and the AIMIM 1 for 19 Lok Sabha constituencies.

We all know that since the 2023 Assembly elections, the political scenario has changed significantly in Telangana. The fortune of Congress is on ascendance as it has wrested the state from the TRS/BRS party in the Assembly election 2023.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, Congress is in a much stronger position than it was in 2019 or 2014. So the tally of Congress is likely to improve from its previous performances. In such a situation, the prediction is Congress INDIA alliance may get 18 seats, BJP 4 seats, BRS 4 and AIAM 1 seat. The TDP and YSRCP may go blank in the 2024 polls.

In the final analysis, the Congress-led alliance may get 18 seats and the BJP-led NDA may get 4 seats in Telangana.

Andhra Pradesh

There are 25 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh. The TDP, BJP, and the Jana Sena are alliance partners in the 2024 polls. According to the arrangement, the BJP will run for 6 parliamentary seats, the TDP will contest for 17, and the JSP for 2 seats.

The News18's Mega Opinion Poll has predicted 18 seats for the BJP-led alliance and 7 seats to YSRCP in the 2024 election. The ruling party in Andhra Pradesh is YSRCP. In the 2019 LS poll, YSRCP got 22 seats and the TDP 3 seats. In the 2014 general elections, TDP got 15 seats YSRCP 8, and BJP 2 seats.

In the year 2024, the political situation in Andhra Pradesh changed after YS Sharmila, sister of Jagan Mohan Reddy joined the Congress. The presence of YS Sharmila may revive the Congress fortunes in Andhra Pradesh. In such a case, the Congress may open its account, in its traditional bastion.

The prediction of the opinion poll in favor of the BJP alliance is unpalatable. The main parties in Andhra Pradesh are the YSRCP and the TDP. The TDP had only 3 seats in the 2019 election and that is the reason it has allied with the BJP and the JSP. The pollster has given 18 seats and the YSRCP that had won 22 seats is predicted to win 7 seats in 2024. Can this be acceptable? This clearly shows the opinion poll is fudged in favor of BJP-led political alliance.

What looks apparent is that the YSRCP tally may decrease from its 22 seats performance in 2019 but it will certainly not reduce to 7 seats in 2024 as predicted by the opinion poll. The most likely result in 2024 may be that YSRCP may get 18 seats, the BJP alliance may get 5 seats and the Congress-led alliance may get 2 seats in Andhra Pradesh.

So in the final analysis the YSRCP with 18 seats holds the trump card and in the most likely scenario, it will go with the INC and not to the BJP because it will not sign its death warrant in the state politics by joining the TDP, BJP alliance.

Summary

The view from South India in the 2024 poll, out of 139 seats the BJP in Tamil Nadu may get 1 seat out of 39 seats. In Kerala, out of 20 seats, it may not get a single seat. In Karnataka, out of 28 seats, it may get 20 seats. In Telengana out of 27 seats, it may get 4 seats and in Andhra Pradesh, out of 25 seats it may get 5 seats.

In contrast, the Congress out of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu will get 38 seats. In Kerala, out of 20 seats will get all 20 seats. In Karnataka out of 28 seats, Congress will get 8 seats. In Telengana out of 27 seats, Congress will get 18 seats. In Andhra Pradesh out of 25 seats, Congress will get 2 seats plus 17 seats of YSRCP.

In the final analysis, the BJP-led alliance will get 30 seats, the Congress alliance will get 87 seats out of the total 139 seats from South India for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

[The writer, Syed Ali Mujtaba, is a journalist based in Chennai. He can be contacted at syedalimujtaba2007@gmail.com]

 

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