Dhule-Malegaon Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Onus on Hindu Voters to Defeat BJP

The analysis of Dhule-Malegaon Parliamentary Seat (Dhule Lok Sabha Constituency) here is a Case Study. But, it also applies to other Parliamentary constituencies of India where Muslims are consistently voting for Secular Candidates, and also for the Congress when most of its supporters have deserted it, whereas the voting pattern of Hindus is exactly opposite. Read More

Tuesday March 19, 2024 12:12 PM, Aleem Faizee, ummid.com

Malegaon: The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) has reposed its faith in Dr Subhash Bhamre, sitting MP and former Union Minister, and nominated him once again from the Dhule-Malegaon Parliamentary seat for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections.

Dr Subhash Bhamre had won the General Elections from this seat in 2014 and 2019, and is now eying for a hat-trick. The stakes are also high for the BJP, which is winning the Dhule Parliamentary Constituency seat since 2009 and is now looking for a 4th consecutive victory from here.

Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) has so far not announced its candidate from the Dhule-Malegaon Lok Sabha Seat even as a large number of ticket seekers are lobbying to get one.

The Dhule seat has previously been contested by the Congress, and it is hence taken for granted that the Congress will once again field its candidate from here, though other options are also being explored.

Dhule Parliament Seat Overview

Malegaon and Dhule were two different constituencies till 2008 delimitation. As both the seats were reserved, unknown and unfamiliar SC candidates from remote villages used to be in fray. Hence, voters here had very little interest in the parliamentary elections.

After the 2008 delimitation, Malegaon Parliamentary Constituency was annulled and a single seat namely Dhule Lok Sabha General Seat constituting six Assembly segments namely Dhule City, Dhule Rural, Malegaon Central, Malegaon Outer, Sindkheda and Baglan (Satana).

The de-reservation of the constituency, for the first time since the Independence, enabled local voters see familiar faces as candidates in the Parliamentary Elections. Consequently, there was a huge enthusiasm among the voters when 2009 General Elections were held after the delimitation.

BJP’s rise in Dhule

Before the delimitation, the Congress candidates won in most elections from Malegaon and Dhule Parliamentary Constituencies. However, the delimitation not only changed the demography of the newly formed Dhule Lok Sabha constituency but also dimmed the chances of the Congress Party, it seems, forever.

Interestingly, the Congress loss here was the BJP’s gain, and the party, which barring 1996 General Elections, could not win a single polls, registered a victory not only in 2009 but went on to win 2014 and 2019 General Elections and now eyes a 4th successive victory from one time Congress and Socialist bastion.

In fact, Pratap Sonawane of the BJP had a very little chance in 2009. Yet, he defeated the Congress heavyweight Amarishbhai Patel though by a slender margin of 19,419 votes.

The credit for Sonawane’s victory in the 2009 Parliamentary Elections goes to Nihal Ahmed, Former Minister in Maharashtra Cabinet and 5-time MLA from Malegaon, Anil Gote, former MLA from Dhule, and a political novice Rizwan Akbar who together bagged a whopping 137,981 votes and sealed Amarish Patel’s defeat.

The BJP’s victory in 2009 General Elections helped the party to further consolidate its support base in Dhule. As a result it won the 2014 and 2019 elections with a massive margins of 130,723 and 229,243 votes respectively.

If Pratap Sonawane’s victory in 2009 (263,260 votes of Pratap Sonawane vs 243,841 votes of Amarishbhai) was because of the division in secular votes, Dr Subhash Bhamre’s victory in 2014 and 2019 elections were due to a strong consolidation of Hindu votes in BJP’s favour.

Interestingly, Muslims in Malegaon Central (over 90% of the total population), Dhule City (about 30%), and about 5-10% in Malegaon Outer, Dhule Rural and Baglan, massively voted in favour of the Congress candidates – Amarishbhai Patel in 2014 (398,727 votes of Amarishbhai vs 529,450 votes of Dr Bhamre) and Kunal Rohidas Patil in 2019 (384,290 votes of Kunal Patil vs 613,533 votes of Dr Bhamre). Their combined votes however were insufficient to defeat the BJP.

But, following Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, which was in the constituency last week, a ripple is clearly seen in the favour of the grand old party.

Also, Dr Subhash Bhamre is facing a strong incumbency mainly because of unfulfilled promises and his reported “misbehaviour” towards the people of Malegaon and Baglan during the Covid-19 Pandemic.

People have not forgotten how Subhash Bhamre had blocked the entry of Covid patients from Malegaon and Baglan seeking treatment in Dhule hospitals, his demand to deploy military in Malegaon during the Lockdown and absolutely no progress on Manmad-Malegaon-Dhule-Indore Railway Project, the foundation stone of which was laid by PM Modi weeks before the 2019 elections.

INDIA Ticket Seekers

Owing to the anger against Dr Bhamre, the Dhule Parliamentary Seat could be a cakewalk for a Secular candidate if seriously backed by all INDIA bloc constituents. It is hence there is a long list of candidates seeking to contest the 2024 polls from here.

Prominent among them are Kunal Patil of Congress - Dhule Rural MLA who unsuccessfully contested the 2019 General Elections, Asif Shaikh Rasheed - Former Congress MLA from Malegaon who switched to the NCP (Sharad Pawar), Dr Tushar Shewale of Congress and Shan e Hind Nehal of Samajwadi Party – all seasoned politicians.

Also lobbying for the Congress ticket is Abdur Rahman IPS. Abdur Rahman IPS is famous for his tome on declining representation of Muslims in the Parliament and Legislative Assemblies. He also made the headlines after he resigned as Special IGP at Maharashtra State Human Rights Commission protesting Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) 2019.

As of now there seems to be a direct contest between the BJP and INDIA bloc in Dhule. But, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM could play a spoiler. The AIMIM currently holds 02 of the 05 Assembly Constituencies in Dhule Parliamentary Constituency. Owaisi has already announced fielding candidates in five Parliamentary Constituencies of Maharashtra. One of them is Dhule, and Mufti Ismael, AIMIM MLA from Malegaon Central, is openly talking about contesting the 2024 General Elections from the Dhule seat.

Will Hindu Voters Raise to the Occasion?

Whether AIMIM fields its candidate in Dhule or not, Muslim voters have by and large decided to vote for the Secular candidate – from Congress or any other party of the INDIA bloc.

However, it is the responsibility of the Hindu voters in the constituency to lend their support to the Secular candidate. For, the analysis of the 2014 and 2019 Parliamentary election results show Muslim votes alone cannot defeat the BJP.

Hence, if the threat to the Nation, Constitution and Democracy that BJP is posing today is real then Hindus too should realise their responsibility and support the Secular candidate.

If the BJP’s handling of economy is indeed against the interest of the country, then the Hindus must also rise above the “communal politics” and “fake nationalism” and vote against the economic imbalance and widening gap between rich and poor.

If the BJP is indeed responsible for rampant unemployment and rising prices then among the sufferers are also the Hindus and they must now vote for a change in the 2024 General Elections.

The responsivity is also of the INDIA bloc constituents - mainly the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) and the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar) to successfully drive the Hindu voters in favour of the Secular candidate.

Footnote: The analysis of Dhule-Malegaon Parliamentary Seat (Dhule Lok Sabha Constituency) here is a Case Study. But, it also applies to other Parliamentary constituencies of India where Muslims are consistently voting for Secular Candidates, and also for the Congress when most of its supporters have deserted it, whereas the voting pattern of Hindus is exactly opposite.

[The writer, Aleem Faizee, is Founder Editor ummid.com. He can be reached at aleem.faizee@gmail.com]

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