[If votes polled by SP and BSP candidates in 2014 are taken into account and if the two parties have their traditional vote-base intact, then the BJP runs the risk of losing all these 14 seats in phase 6 barring perhaps Pratapgarh. (Photo: Twitter/@yadavakhilesh)]
New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces its toughest challenge from the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) in the next round of voting in Uttar Pradesh on May 12 as the electoral arithmetic favours the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) alliance on almost all the 14 seats going to polls.
The BJP had swept the region in 2014 winning all except Azamgarh.
In Phulpur, the seat from where the MGB experiment started, the BJP has already witnessed the alliance strength as it lost the constituency in 2018 bypolls.
If votes polled by SP and BSP candidates in 2014 are taken into account and if the two parties have their traditional vote-base intact, then the BJP runs the risk of losing all these 14 seats in phase 6 barring perhaps Pratapgarh.
After five rounds, fate of the candidates on 53 out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh has already been sealed and till now the BJP and MGB are placed evenly in terms of number equation. But in Round 6, MGB poses the strongest resistance to the BJP.
Stakes are high for MGB leader Akhilesh Yadav who is contesting from Azamgarh, a seat won by his father Mulayam Singh Yadav in 2014. He is facing Bhojpuri actor Dinesh Lal Yadav "Nirhua" who has been fielded by the BJP to break the Yadav stronghold.
Fate of BJP leader Maneka Gandhi will also be decided as she is contesting from Sultanpur, a seat held by her son Varun Gandhi.
In Pratapgarh, BJP's Kuwar Harivansh had polled 3,75,789 votes in 2014 which is more than the combined votes polled by SP and BSP candidates.
This time, the BJP has fielded Sangam Lal Gupta, who is facing Ashok Kumar Tripathi of MGB and Ratna Singh of the Congress in a triangular contest which favours the BJP.
Ratna Singh had got 1,38,620 votes in the last elections. The seat has sizeable presence of the Congress.
But a lot of equations have changed between 2014 and 2019 which will have bearing on the outcome of the polls.
BJP' sitting MP in Allahabad Shyam Charan Gupta is now the SP candidate from Banda. Another BJP MP, Ram Charitra Nishad from Machhlishehr also joined the SP.
2014 Winner: Daddan Mishra -- BJP -- votes polls 3,45,964 Atiq Ahmad -- SP -- 2,60,051 Lal Ji Verma -- BSP -- 1,94,890
SP+BSP= 4,54,941
Advantage: MGB
Contestants in 2019
Daddan Mishra - BJP Dhirendra Pratap Singh -- UPA Ram Shiromani Verma -- MGB
2014 Winner: Jagdambika Pal -- BJP -- 2,98,845 Mata Prasad Pandey -- SP -- 1,74,778 Muhammad Muqueem -- BSP -- 1,95,257 SP+BSP= 3,70,035
Jagdambika Pal -- BJP Aftab Alam -- MGB
2014 Winner: Feroze Varun Gandhi -- BJP -- 4,10,348 Pawan Pandey -- BSP -- 2,31,446 Shakeel Ahmad -- SP -- 2,28,114 SP+BSP= 4,59,590
Maneka Gandhi -- BJP Sanjay Singh -- UPA Chandrabhadra Singh -- MGB Kamla Yadav -- PDA
2014 Winner: Kuwar Harivansh Singh -- BJP -- 3,75,789 Asif Nizamuddin -- BSP -- 2,07,567 Pramod Kumar Singh Patel -- SP -- 1,20,107 SP+BSP= 3,27,674 Adv: BJP
2014 Winner: Neelam Sonkar -- BJP -- 3,24,016 Dr. Baliram -- BSP -- 2,33,971 Bechai Saroj -- SP -- 2,60,930 SP+BSP= 4,94,901
Neelam Sonkar -- BJP Pankaj Mohan Sarkar -- UPA Sangeeta -- MGB Hemraj Paswan -- PDA
2014 Winner: Mulayam Singh Yadav -- SP -- 3,40,306 Ramakant Yadav -- BJP -- 2,77,102 Shah Alam alias Guddu Jamali -- BSP -- 2,66,528
SP+BSP= 6,06,834
Dinesh Lal Yadav "Nirhua" -- BJP Akhilesh Yadav -- MGB
2014 Winner: Krishna Pratap 'KP' -- 3,67,149 BJP Parasnath Yadav -- SP -- 1,80,003 Subhash Pandey -- BSP -- 2,22,0839 SP+BSP= 4,00,842 Advantage: MGB
KP Singh: BJP Devvrata Mishra: UPA Shyam Singh Yadav -- MGB Sangeeta Yadav -- PDA
2014 Winner: Ram Charitra Nishad -- BJP -- 4,38,210 Tufani -- SP -- 1,91,387 Bholanath alias BP Saroj -- BSP -- 2,66,055 SP+BSP= 4,57,442
VP Saroj -- BJP Triveni Ram -- MGB
2014 Winner: Virendra Singh -- BJP -- 4,03,695 Seema Mishra -- SP -- 2,38,712 Rakesh Dhar Tripathi -- BSP -- 2,45,554 SP+BSP= 5,04,266
Ramesh Bind -- BJP Ramakant Yadav -- UPA Rangnath Mishra -- MGB
2014 Winner: Harish Chandra alias Harish Dwivedi -- BJP -- 3,57,680 Brij Kishor Singh -- SP -- 3,24,118 Ram Prasad Chaudhary -- BSP -- 2,83,747 SP+BSP=6,07,865
Harish Dwivedi: BJP Raj Kishore Singh : UPA Ram Prasad Chaudhary : MGB Ramkeval Yadav: PDA
2014 Winner: Sharad Tripathi -- BJP -- 3,48,892 Bhishm Shankar alias Kushal tiwari -- BSP -- 250914 Dhal Chandra Yadav -- SP -- 2,40,169 SP+BSP= 4,91,083
Pravin Kr. Nishad: BJP Parvez Khan: UPA Bhim Shankar aka Kushal Tiwari: MGB
2014 Winner: Shyam Charan Gupta -- BJP -- 3,13,772 Keshri Devi -- BSP -- 1,62,073 Kunwar Rewati Raman Singh -- SP -- 2,51,763
SP+BSP= 4,13,836
Rita Bahuguna: BJP Rajendra Singh Patel: MGB Yogesh Shukla: UPA
2014 Winner: Hari Om Pandey -- BJP -- 4,32,104 Rakesh Pandey -- BSP - 2,92,675 Ram Murti Verma -- SP -- 2,34,467 SP+BSP= 5,22,142
Mukut Bihari Verma: BJP Ummed Singh Nishad :UPA Ritesh Pandey: MGB Prem Nishad: PDA
2014 Winner: Keshav Prasad Maurya -- BJP -- 5,03,564 Kapil Muni Karwariya -- BSP -- 1,63,710 Dharam Raj Singh Patel: 1,95,082 SP+BSP= 3,58,792
Keshri Patel: BJP Pankaj Niranjanjan: UPA Pandhari Yadav: MGB Priya Singh PDA
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