6 Reasons Why The Doomsday Clock Is At 80-Year Low
The famous Doomsday Clock was created in 1947, and reset every year by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board in consultation with the Board of Sponsors, including eight Nobel laureates
Albert Einstein, Robert Oppenheimer, and University of Chicago scientists founded the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in 1945. The famous Doomsday Clock was created two years later and reset every year by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board in consultation with the Board of Sponsors, including eight Nobel laureates.
Manhattan Project scientists felt obligated to educate the public about the catastrophic implications of nuclear weapons, especially after US bombings of Hiroshima (Aug.6, 1945 – 80,000 instant deaths, 140,000 by year end) and Nagasaki (Aug. 9, 1945 – approximately 40,000 instant deaths, 80,000 by year end).”Little Boy” dropped on Hiroshima was 15-kilotons. Today’s thermonuclear weapons are well over 100-kilotons up to a megaton (a megaton equals 1,000 kilotons).
According to data provided by ICAN, one thermonuclear weapon detonated over NYC would ignite a fireball wider than one mile instantly vaporizing people and buildings on initial impact within that radius. Additionally, the thermal pulse or intense flash of light and heat would cause third-degree burns and inflame infrastructure 7-8 miles away. Then a firestorm would consume the city for as much as 150 square miles.
The initial setting for the iconic clock in 1947 was seven (7) minutes to midnight. The world-famous clock symbolizes the vulnerability to global catastrophe via human-made technology. The scientists were hopeful of preventing a nuclear arms race. Oops! As of 2026, nine nations possess approximately 12,330 nuclear warheads (Russia 5459; US 5277; China 600; France 290; UK 225; India 180; Pakistan 170; Israel 90; No. Korea 50).
Risks never looked so ominous. In plain English, as of January 27th, 2026, the new clock setting is more foreboding than ever before at 85 seconds to midnight. Accordingly, since the onset of the clock in 1947, world affairs have succumbed to the lowest level in generations. It’s as if the world is trapped in a vortex of blundering, ineptitude, and clownishness.
The Board’s Summary of World Affairs
“A year ago, we warned that the world was perilously close to global disaster and that any delay in reversing course increased the probability of catastrophe. Rather than heed this warning, Russia, China, the United States, and other major countries have instead become increasingly aggressive, adversarial, and nationalistic. Hard-won global understandings are collapsing, accelerating a winner-takes-all great power competition and undermining the international cooperation critical to reducing the risks of nuclear war, climate change, the misuse of biotechnology, the potential threat of artificial intelligence, and other apocalyptic dangers. Far too many leaders have grown complacent and indifferent, in many cases adopting rhetoric and policies that accelerate rather than mitigate these existential Risks.”
By setting the famous clock at 85 seconds to midnight, the Board recognizes the failure of leadership of the world as the principal reason for the lowest reading ever. World leadership lacks vision and horribly deficient in historical perspective of missteps among nations often leading to unnecessary combativeness with nuclear in the hotseat.
1. Nuclear Risks
From day one, nuclear risks have been paramount. Living up to that concern, 2025 experienced three regional conflicts involving nuclear powers, all threatening to escalate (1) Russia-Ukraine (2) India-Pakistan (3) US/Israel-Iran.
However, according to the Board, the biggest turn of events is the onset of a full-blown arms race. China has dramatically increased nuclear warheads, in 2025 China completed or was near completing around 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos across multiple desert and mountain sites, and the US, Russia, and China have modernized their nuclear delivery systems. But none of the big three appears to feel as threatened as does the United States, which plans to build a Golden Dome, including space-based interceptors. This defensive maneuver by the US guarantees a new space-based arms race that’s certain to spread alarm around the world.
Of additional concern, the nuclear weapon countries are not talking about strategic stability or arms control. The US commitment, or lack of commitment, for allies in Europe and in Asia is pushing countries sans nuclear weapons to acquiring them. Indeed, this enhances an incipient new arms race across the world.
Making matters even worse yet, the two biggest gorillas in the room the US and Russia START agreement that limits the number of nuclear weapons is set to expire after 60 years The treaty is set to end on February 5, and without it there will be no constraints on long-range nuclear arsenals for the first time since Richard Nixon and Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev signed historic agreements in 1972 on the first-ever trip by a U.S. president to Moscow
2. Climate Change on Bad Footing
The Board sees climate change on a downhill trajectory that threatens civilization: “The national and international responses to the climate emergency went from wholly insufficient to profoundly destructive. None of the three most recent UN climate summits emphasized phasing out fossil fuels or monitoring carbon dioxide emissions. In the United States, the Trump administration has essentially declared war on renewable energy and sensible climate policies, relentlessly gutting national efforts to combat climate change.”
The graph below demonstrates the post-industrial trend in greenhouse gases, which are the primary drivers of global warming: The steeper/ the longer/ the more Earth heats up. Trump administration focus on fossil fuels at the expense of renewables steepens the vertical ascent eventually to Hot House Earth, unless CO2 is stopped and also removed to a certain extent. Removal of CO2 from the atmosphere is extremely challenging as current technology is anemic.
3. Synthetic Biology “Mirror Life” Threatens All Life
The past year witnessed a life sciences artificial development that threatens all life. Scientists from nine countries have warned about the creation of “Mirror Life” via laboratory synthesis, consisting of “mirror bacteria” and other “mirror cells” that scientists warn should not be allowed to continue. Mirror Life is composed of chemically synthesized molecules that are “mirror-images” of molecules naturally found on Earth. According to the Board: “A self-replicating mirror cell could plausibly evade normal controls on growth, spread throughout all ecosystems, and eventually cause the widespread death of humans, other animals, and plants, potentially disrupting all life on Earth. So far, however, the international community has not arrived at a plan to address this risk.”
4. AI
“The AI revolution has the potential to accelerate the existing chaos and dysfunction in the world’s information ecosystem, supercharging mis- and disinformation campaigns and undermining the fact-based public discussions required to address urgent major threats like nuclear war, pandemics, and climate change.” AI-aided design of new pathogens harmful to humans is of concern as state-sponsored biological weapons.
5. US Degradation of Public Health
The Board takes special aim at the US: “Perhaps of most immediate concern is the rapid degradation of US public health infrastructure and expertise. This dangerously reduces the ability of the United States and other nations to respond to pandemics and other biological threats.”
6. Autocratic Trends
Overlaying the above-mentioned flash points, the ongoing autocratic trend of world governments impedes international cooperation. It reduces accountability. And it acts like a “threat accelerant.” Autocrats are not reliable negotiators and can easily upset the proverbial apple cart, triggering unforeseen domino-effect disaster scenarios.
In the final analysis, eighty-five (85) seconds to midnight doesn’t leave much room for error.
[The writer, Robert Hunziker, is a journalist from Los Angeles. This article was originally published on Feb. 6, 2026 Counterpunch.]
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