2024 Maharahtra Polls: Analyzing The Complex Political Landscape

As Maharashtra gears up for the 2024 elections, the political scene is entangled in a complex mix of alliances, conflicts, and high-stakes strategies involving six major parties, several smaller groups, independent candidates, and even rebels

Saturday November 2, 2024 7:27 PM, Mohd Ziyauallah Khan

As Maharashtra gears up for the 2024 elections, the political scene is entangled in a complex mix of alliances, conflicts, and high-stakes strategies involving six major parties, several smaller groups, independent candidates, and even rebels.

The sheer diversity of players and vested interests creates what can only be described as a “Maha mess,” with a myriad of factors influencing the possible outcomes.

Let’s look at some key “X factors” that will play decisive roles in determining who emerges victorious in these elections.

‘Ladki Bahan’ Scheme

A cornerstone of the current administration’s strategy, the Ladki Bahan Yojna aka Ladli Bahan Yojana, which allocates massive fund of the state specifically to benefit women, has been strategically introduced by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde.

Critics argue that the scheme’s true purpose is to sway the female votes towards the sitting government. While the scheme may increase the state’s debt, the political calculation behind it is expected to yield an estimated 2-3% bump in the government’s vote share among women, a demography that has proven decisive in recent elections.

RSS Influence

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has historically supported the BJP, but the entry of Ajit Pawar, whom the RSS views with suspicion due to allegations of corruption, initially raised some eyebrows within the organisation.

Recently, however, the RSS appears to have softened its stance and renewed its support for the BJP, driven by its upcoming centenary celebrations and desire for political stability in Maharashtra.

The RSS plans to conduct approximately 60,000 social meetings to galvanise support among Dalits and OBCs, potentially boosting the BJP’s performance significantly. All they want is their government headed by their favourite CM in the state.

Sharad Pawar’s Master Strategy

At 84, the seasoned politician Sharad Pawar remains a significant influence in Maharashtra’s politics. Aware of his strengths, Pawar is concentrating his efforts on around 60-65 seats, hoping to capture at least 40-45 of them.

If Pawar succeeds, his influence would be hard to ignore, positioning him as a kingmaker in post-election coalition negotiations. His tactical alliance with the Congress and attempts to reconcile with Ajit Pawar’s faction suggest his intentions to secure his legacy and ensure a strong future for his daughter, Supriya Sule, and his party.

Rise of Eknath Shinde

Just a few years ago, Eknath Shinde was relatively unknown, yet he has risen to the chief ministerial position through savvy manoeuvring and popular outreach. His populist programs, especially the “Ladki Bahan” or Ladli Behna scheme, have contributed to a rise in his popularity.

Additionally, his connections with influential Maratha leaders, including Waranje Patil, could help him strengthen support from the Maratha community.

Shinde’s ability to navigate Maharashtra’s political complexities may prove crucial in the upcoming elections.

Agrarian Crisis

Maharashtra has long struggled with an agrarian crisis, with frequent farmer suicides, especially in Vidarbha. This issue remains central to the state’s politics, and both the BJP and Congress are vying for the rural vote.

While the BJP aims to consolidate non-Maratha votes through outreach to OBC communities, the Congress is banking on a coalition of Dalits, Muslims, and Kunbi farmers.

The latter group has a strong presence in Vidarbha and, as such, could sway the election results significantly.

Independent Candidates and Rebels

Independent candidates and party rebels have a history of influencing Maharashtra’s elections. They often draw away votes from mainstream parties, with many of them securing funding from the BJP to weaken opposition parties.

This tactic proved effective in Haryana and could play a similar role here. In 1995, around 45 independents won seats in Maharashtra - a repeat of this scenario could disrupt the balance and force major parties into unexpected alliances, with the potential to push the BJP over the edge.

Vote Share from Non-Maratha Communities

While Maratha leaders have historically dominated Maharashtra’s political scene, recent efforts to appeal to non-Maratha voters have shifted the dynamics.

The BJP’s outreach to OBCs, coupled with Congress’s efforts to secure the support of Dalits and Kunbi farmers, indicates a direct contest for non-Maratha votes. The winner of this contest may very well determine the overall outcome of the election.

Influence of Ajit Pawar

Ajit Pawar, who joined the BJP alliance despite controversy, brings with him substantial clout. His support among NCP loyalists, especially in Western Maharashtra, could bolster the BJP’s numbers, albeit at a reputational cost due to corruption allegations.

However, Ajit Pawar’s influence in the agricultural regions gives him an edge in gathering votes for the BJP-NCP alliance in districts traditionally loyal to the NCP.

Economic Concerns and Regional Development

Regional inequalities and development issues are major talking points. Vidarbha and Marathwada lag economically compared to western Maharashtra, fueling dissatisfaction among voters in these regions.

Congress and smaller regional parties are likely to capitalise on this sentiment, offering developmental promises in their campaigns to attract these regions’ votes.

“Maha Mess” of Coalitions and Alliances

With Maharashtra’s history of coalition governments, no single party has managed to hold power without alliances. Recent years have seen multiple chief ministers and fragmented alliances, most recently highlighted by Shinde’s defection from the Shiv Sena to form a new coalition with the BJP.

As a result, trust in long-term stability has declined among voters. Given that one-third of Maharashtra’s MLAs have shifted between parties in the last decade, the electorate may favour parties that project unity and stability over factionalism and frequent defections.

Conclusion

The Maharashtra 2024 elections are anything but straightforward, with a complex interplay of party loyalties, individual ambitions, and voter preferences shaping an unpredictable electoral battlefield.

Coalition governments have long been the norm here, and the situation is unlikely to change given the fractured political landscape. Over the past five years alone, the state has seen three different chief ministers and numerous party splits, reflecting the high stakes and fierce competition that define its politics.

In many ways, Maharashtra’s politics resemble an IPL-style auction, with party loyalties often “purchased” to achieve short-term electoral gains. But unlike in sports, political players are under no contract to their parties, resulting in a climate where switching allegiances is commonplace. This dynamic, while strategic, adds to voter disillusionment and creates an atmosphere of uncertainty, where anything can happen.

As election day approaches, the stakes remain high, and the competition is fierce. While voter loyalty is tested, the one certainty is that Maharashtra’s political landscape will continue to be a dynamic and challenging environment where any outcome is possible.

The victor in 2024 will need not only a strong vote count but also the strategic alliances, cross-community appeal, and resilience to manage the “Maha mess” that has become Maharashtra politics.

[The writer, Mohd Ziyauallah Khan, is a freelance content writer based in Nagpur. He is also an activist and social entrepreneur, co-founder of the group TruthScape, a team of digital activists fighting disinformation on social media.]

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