2024 Polls and Jammu Kashmir's Political Future
How parties and candidates in Jammu Kashmir address the electorate’s concerns and navigate the intricacies of the post-Article 370 landscape will ultimately determine their success
The abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019 marked a watershed moment for Jammu and Kashmir, stripping the region of its special constitutional status. This was followed by a delimitation process, which redrew electoral constituencies and altered representation, significantly reshaping the political landscape. As the region gears up for upcoming assembly elections, the focus will be on how these transformations influence political parties and the electorate alike.
The recent parliamentary elections provided a glimpse into the current political mood. In Kashmir, the National Conference (NC) secured 02 out of 03 seats, while the remaining seat went to the Awami Itehad Party (AIP). In contrast, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) won both seats in the Jammu region, though with relatively narrow margins.
This outcome highlighted the enduring regional divide between Jammu and Kashmir, a factor that is likely to play a significant role in the upcoming assembly elections. These elections present a unique challenge for political parties and independent candidates. The fragmentation of the political field, with an increasing number of local candidates, will likely have a considerable impact on the results. The ability of these candidates to resonate with voters on key issues will be crucial to their success. Many parties and independent candidates have built their campaigns around the promise of restoring Jammu and Kashmir’s pre-August 5, 2019, status, including the restoration of statehood. However, while the central government remains firmly opposed to reinstating Article 370, the return of statehood could be on the horizon, forcing political parties to reconsider how they frame their campaigns around Article 370.
The charged atmosphere created by recent political rallies and roadshows points toward a highly engaged electorate. With voter turnout expected to be high — mirroring the robust participation in the recent parliamentary elections, the highest in four decades — it is clear that the people of Jammu and Kashmir are eager to shape their future through the democratic process.
One of the most intriguing developments in these elections is the participation of Jamaat-e-Islami candidates running independently. Historically, Jamaat-e-Islami has called for boycotts of both parliamentary and assembly elections, but its involvement in this election marks a significant shift in its strategy. This raises questions about Jamaat’s evolving ideological stance post-Article 370 abrogation and its potential influence in the region’s political scene. Jamaat has traditionally had a strong cadre base and organizational structure, which could be pivotal in its electoral success. How this decision will impact the broader political landscape remains to be seen, but it adds a new dimension to the already complex political scenario.
Established political parties, such as the National Conference (NC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Awami Itehad Party (AIP), Communist Party of India Marxist (CPI-M), Congress, and the BJP, will need to put forth significant effort to secure victories. Beyond regional divides and ideological differences, these parties must address the pressing concerns of the electorate, including roads, education, healthcare, and basic infrastructure. These are critical issues that have long affected the people of Jammu and Kashmir and will undoubtedly shape voter preferences in the upcoming elections.
Key Issues
The political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir is being shaped by a range of pressing issues that directly affect the lives of its people. Rising unemployment, soaring inflation, and skyrocketing electricity bills have pushed many into a debt trap, leaving common households struggling to make ends meet. Adding to their woes is the corporate control over agriculture, where substandard pesticides and fertilizers are sold to farmers, making their lives even more challenging.
Infrastructural development, particularly road connectivity, remains a critical concern. While the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) has made strides in improving rural roads, many areas, especially in the region’s remote parts, still suffer from poor connectivity. This not only limits access to essential services like healthcare and education but also stifles economic opportunities for rural communities. Political parties must focus on prioritizing infrastructure, ensuring that improved road networks become a driving force for growth and mobility.
Education, too, demands urgent intervention. Schools in rural and remote areas face a lack of resources, qualified teachers, and proper infrastructure. Without strong political commitment, the education system will continue to lag behind, leaving children in the region with fewer opportunities. Political parties must come forward with clear policies to address these concerns and ensure that every child in Jammu and Kashmir receives quality education.
Healthcare infrastructure, particularly in rural areas, is another area that requires immediate attention. Access to basic medical services, trained professionals, and essential medicines remains a major challenge. The COVID-19 pandemic laid bare the vulnerabilities of the system, especially in rural regions, highlighting the need for major improvements.
Political parties must place healthcare reform at the top of their agenda, ensuring that people in Jammu and Kashmir have access to reliable and effective healthcare services. In addition to these pressing issues, the region faces unique challenges due to its complex political history. The unresolved issue of statehood, ongoing political uncertainty, and security concerns continue to dominate discussions. Political parties must not only focus on infrastructure and development but also address the broader political aspirations of the people to ensure lasting peace and stability in Jammu and Kashmir.
Conclusion
As the assembly elections approach, Jammu and Kashmir stand at a crossroads. The region’s political future will be shaped by the choices made by its electorate. The complexity of the current political environment makes it difficult to predict outcomes. With new players entering the fray, high voter turnout expected, and key issues like infrastructure, education, and healthcare at the forefront, these elections will be a true reflection of the region’s evolving political dynamics. How parties and candidates address the electorate’s concerns and navigate the intricacies of the post-Article 370 landscape will ultimately determine their success.
[The writer, Dr Waseem Ahmad Bhat, is Ph. D in Political Science from University of Kashmir. He can be reached at waseembhat94@gmail.com.]
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