Impact of Jammu Kashmir, Haryana Polls on Modi, Rahul Gandhi
Whose political fate is going to be judged most strongly based on the results of the assembly polls in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and Haryana, Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi?
Whose political fate is going to be judged most strongly based on the results of the assembly polls in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and Haryana, Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi?
Should these be viewed as another political battle in essence between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi, perhaps another strong test of nerves for numerous candidates in fray or in essence a major quest particularly by Kashmiris to assert their democratic identity?
Undeniably, more questions can be posed, especially from the angle of Kashmiris as they will be casting their votes in assembly elections for the first time in a decade and after abrogation of Article 370 as well as change of the Jammu and Kashmir status from a state to union territory.
In view of setback suffered by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 Parliamentary polls, electoral jolt in these two assembly elections is most likely to pose numerous questions about the decline in popular appeal of Modi. There is no denying, BJP’s political standing is strongly dependent on votes cast in favour of Modi. A rudimentary survey indicates that common Indian’s electoral support for BJP is decided not by what he thinks about this party but his “admiration” for Modi. The recent parliamentary elections may be viewed as a strong signal of there being considerable decline in this trend.
In contrast to BJP having won all 10 Lok Sabha seats from Haryana in 2019, during the recent polls, it won 05 with the other 05 being bagged by Congress. During the 2019 assembly polls, though the BJP succeeded in forming the state government, the party failed to win the needed majority. It won 40 of 90 seats and thus formed a coalition government. In this context, going by this state’s verdict in parliamentary polls, possibility of Congress faring better than it did in 2019 cannot be dismissed.
Yes, the possibility of the BJP government being pushed out of power in Haryana seems fairly strong. But a lot also depends on the nature of political cards played against each other by the key rivals – BJP and Congress. Equally important is probably the intra-politicking exercised within the two parties by various factions. It may be noted, intra-party rivalry was also probably responsible for BJP’s failure to win the majority in 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
The timing of Haryana polls, being held soon after parliamentary elections, also implies that impact of their campaigning and of course result is likely to be visible on the assembly poll results. Voters’ decision to favour BJP/Congress may also be based on who would they prefer as the next prime minister- Modi or Rahul?
Polls in Jammu & Kashmir may be viewed as a fairly tough battle for voters, parties as well as candidates in fray for several reasons. At the outset, it seems that the key fight is between INDIA-alliance and BJP. While the BJP has decided not to enter into any alliance, a seat-sharing deal has been reached between National Conference (NC) and Congress. NC will contest on 51 seats, Congress- 32, with a friendly fight on five. They have left 01 seath for CPI (M) and 01 for Panthers party.
Interestingly, NC’s key rival in the state, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has displayed mixed signals. On one hand, PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti has pledged its support to INDIA-alliance, on the other, the party has begun the process of releasing list of its candidates. In other words, PDP is participating in these elections without entering into alliance with any other party. Mufti herself is not contesting. Against the backdrop of PDP having aligned with BJP in the past, speculations are certainly being entertained on whether it will pursue the same path again.
PDP may have toyed with the idea of aligning with NC and Congress, but it seems this hasn’t worked. The primary ground is perhaps that of PDP’s political standing being fairly weak and it being still judged on basis of its past alliance with BJP. Besides, PDP failed to win any seat in 2024 as well as in 2019 parliamentary elections which were equally divided between BJP and NC.
On this ground, Congress has stronger reason to align with NC against BJP than with PDP. The electoral risk is that while support for BJP may remain united, that of other parties-may get divided leading to former gaining ground.
This risk may also increase because of numerous politicians contesting elections as independent candidates. Now, it is to be watched on what basis the voters judge candidates in the fray. Their decision needs to be based on whose government would they prefer following the polls, that of BJP, NC-Congress, PDP or whatever alliance that takes shape. They certainly have a tough decision facing them. In addition, the possibility of parliamentary elections’ impact on J&K polls cannot be ignored.
In this context, they will probably be judging between political appeal of Modi and Rahul. There is no denying that Rahul’s manner of reaching out to people has enhanced his image considerably. But this is only a part of strategy to win their support. There is no guarantee that this will get translated into votes. And even if it does, the possibility of it turning into success/victory being limited because of favourable votes’ division, as suggested earlier, cannot be ignored.
At the same time, considering the intra-party problems being faced by BJP in distribution of tickets, this party too is encountering its share of problems in J&K elections. Besides, committed BJP supporters and rivals seem fairly disturbed by the party having withdrawn J&K’s status of a state.
A reason which led BJP to face a setback in Lok Sabha polls was its supporters’ disillusionment with some of its policies. Who knows, BJP may face the same trauma in Haryana and J&K.
Well, if this happens, it would only signal that the electoral show which began with 2024 Lok Sabha polls marking decline of Modi’s political appeal is displaying its impact in assembly polls too. But it is for the voters to decide. Just as each vote matters, a lot depends on whether their votes get too divided, letting the least favoured assume power!
[Nilofar Suhrawardy is a senior journalist and writer with specialization in communication studies and nuclear diplomacy. She has come out with several books. These include:– Modi’s Victory, A Lesson for the Congress…? (2019); Arab Spring, Not Just a Mirage! (2019), Image and Substance, Modi’s First Year in Office (2015) and Ayodhya Without the Communal Stamp, In the Name of Indian Secularism (2006).]
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