Lessons to learn from 2024 Maharashtra Elections

The Maharashtra Assembly Election 2024 provides a lesson or two to Political Science students who watch democracy closely and cry at the ugly sight of the game of numbers, and also for the Muslims in the state

Monday November 25, 2024 12:11 PM, Syed Ali Mujtaba

[The Last Laugh: (from L) Devendra Fadnavis, Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar.]

The Maharashtra Assembly Election 2024 provides a lesson or two to Political Science students who watch democracy closely and cry at the ugly sight of the game of numbers, known to be the best form of governance in the world.

The 2024 Assembly Election in Maharashtra teaches us how Mr. Wrong can become Mr. Right if he wins the election, even if the truth is on Mr. Right's side.

Operation Lotus

It was BJP’s “Operation Lotus” that made a heist in Balasaheb Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and propped up Eknath Shinde of Shiv Sena, throwing him a crumb of CM post that split the Shiv Sena in 2022.

It was a CIA/FBI type precise operation in which Eknath Shinde and his rebel MLAs were flown to Gujarat - a BJP-ruled state, and then taken to Assam, a saffron safe haven ruled by the BJP’s icon Himanta Biswa Sarma. Speculation is being made about how much money had changed hands buying each MLA to make the daylight robbery look fake, and that no poaching had taken place.

This was proved right on the floor test of the house when the BJP provided official support to the rebel Shiv Sena group led by Eknath Shinde. This revealed the grey side of democracy.

This showed the world how the game of numbers can be played in democracy and how people’s mandate can be subverted when the Eknath Shinde rebel group, along with the BJP, captured power in Maharashtra in 2022.

The BJP through its “Operation Lotus” told the world the people’s mandate has no role in democracy and it is the game of numbers that can change democratic mandate, and the loser can become a winner through the game of numbers.

2024 Maharashtra Elections

Well, that’s something of the past, new one in the 2024 election was the battle of supremacy between the two Shiv Senas - the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray, and the ‘con’ faction of the Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde.

The game of numbers has once again belied the popular sentiments. The popular sentiments were with Uddhav Thackeray and democracy-loving people wanted him to lead the state because he was wronged in 2022 due to “Operation Lotus.” But the results of the 2024 elections suggest how people’s will can be set aside in the game of numbers and democracy can be made a spectator of the game of numbers.

At the same time, the Maharashtra assembly election did not bring any cheer to the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde as the BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis has outflanked Shinde and co, pushing them to a corner, where they belonged.

“Operation Lotus” has finally triumphed, in 2024, which started in 2022. The current Maharashtra government will be a BJP government that lost power in 2019. It will be led by Devendra Fadnavis as the Chief Minister. Whether Eknath Shinde or Ajit Pawar will be Deputy Chief Minister will be a toss.

Muslim factor in Maharashtra election

The Maharashtra assembly election has nothing for the Muslims to cheer up. They will have only 10 Muslim MLAs in the new assembly. This is the same as in 2019. This is 0.03% of the total 12% Muslim population in Maharashtra.

In the 38 Maharashtra seats where Muslims make up more than 20% of the population, the BJP has raised its tally to 14 this time, up from 11 in 2019. The Congress showed the biggest slide, going down from 11 seats in 2019 to 5 in 2024. The AIMIM which is touted as a Muslim party dropped its strength from 2 to 1 that too with the winning margin of 162 votes.

In the 38 seats with over 20% of the Muslim population, the BJP won 14, Congress 5, Shinde Shiv Sena 6, Shiv Sena (UBT) 6, Ajit Pawar NCP 2, Samajwadi Party 2, NCP (SP) 2, AIMIM 1.

The number of Muslim MLAs in Maharashtra has never gone beyond 13, reaching this in 1972, 1980, and 1999. The lowest tally was in 1995, at 8. This needs a huge introspection by the stakeholders within the Muslim community as to why they cannot increase their tally.

The spirit of democracy and the game of numbers suggest that Muslims should have at least 30+ MLAs in the 288-member Assembly in Maharastra.

Muslims should learn from the RSS

The RSS has played a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of the recently concluded Maharashtra Assembly elections.

With the outcome of the UP results in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the RSS adopted a more proactive approach in the Maharashtra election. Staying true to its tradition of operating behind the scenes, the RSS focused on silent but effective voter mobilization efforts, particularly in urban centers which are also Muslim-dominated constituencies.

First, the RSS ensured a high turnout of the voters in these cities and for this it created awareness and took the voters to the booth, playing the game of numbers by its rule book.

This involved extensive groundwork by the RSS cadres, who leveraged their network of Shakhas (branches) and affiliated organizations to reach out to the Hindu communities at the grassroots level.

The RSS also capitalized on its apolitical yet influential voters who might not have been swayed by conventional party campaigns and remained a fence sitter.

The RSS's priority was to engage urban voters, stressing the importance of “stability and development” under the BJP-led government.

Through door-to-door campaigns, community meetings, informal gatherings and a very effective use of social media, especially WhatsApp groups, the Sangh successfully conveyed its message without overtly associating itself with political campaigning. This surge played a critical role in consolidating support for the BJP, particularly among middle-class voters who are crucial for the coalition’s electoral success.

The RSS’ involvement came with a clear caveat that Devendra Fadnavis should lead the State. The victory is not just a win for the BJP but also a reaffirmation of the RSS’ ability to shape political narratives and outcomes.

The Maharashtra assembly election also provides a lesson or two, on how Muslims need to organize themselves while preparing for the next election in 2030.

[The writer, Syed Ali MJujtaba, is a Journalist. He can be contacted at syedalimujtaba2007@gmail.com]

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