Modi 3.0: A Shift in Power Dynamics
Narendra Modi, once a dominant force in Indian politics, now appears to be struggling to maintain his once-unquestionable influence
Modi 3.0 with his minority government is facing a tough time when it comes to smooth governance and monopoly, which we have witnessed in the previous governments. He is facing two significant challenges: surviving votes of no-confidence and successfully passing legislation. These hurdles are crucial for maintaining stability and ensuring governance, especially when the ruling party lacks a clear majority.
Modi, once a dominant force in Indian politics, now appears to be struggling to maintain his once-unquestionable influence. As his third term progresses, the momentum that once propelled Modi’s sweeping reforms and decisive leadership seems to be waning.
While still firmly in power, cracks in the foundation of his authority have started to show. But how has one of India’s most powerful leaders begun to lose his impact in the current government?
Surviving Vote of No-Confidence
One of the key concerns for a minority government like the current one is simply remaining in office for a full five-year term. To achieve this, the ruling party must secure the support of a sufficient number of Members of Parliament (MPs) to survive votes of no-confidence.
Historically, minority governments in India have managed to survive with as few as 150 seats, but this number is a critical threshold that cannot be much lower. For example, the coalitions that governed before 2014—led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee (1999), Manmohan Singh (2004), and Manmohan Singh again (2009)—all completed their five-year terms.
Even though their parties had as few as 182, 145, and 206 seats respectively, they managed to govern effectively by keeping their coalition partners together.
While these years were marked by frequent reports of tensions and disagreements among coalition partners, all three governments reached the finish line, showing that survival is possible even with a weak majority.
The Current Scenario: BJP’s Position in the 18th Lok Sabha
In the current 18th Lok Sabha, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) holds 240 seats, making it the only party capable of forming a government. Although it no longer enjoys a majority, the BJP’s allies understand that their ministries are secure until 2029 as long as they provide their support in key votes.
A report from August noted the unusual dynamic in Parliament: while the opposition INDIA bloc reacted in unison, the BJP often appeared isolated, as its allies had little investment in defending the government’s ideology. This situation highlights the precarious nature of alliances in minority governments.
The coalition partners may remain loyal in terms of voting but have no incentive to champion the government’s broader agenda, leading to challenges in governing effectively.
Passing Legislation: A Tough Task
The second major challenge for minority governments evident in Modi 3.0 is passing legislation. Even if a government is assured of a full term, as seems to be the case with the current BJP administration, it still needs to get its legislative agenda through Parliament.
Historical precedent shows that weak governments can pass impactful laws if they have conviction. For instance, Manmohan Singh’s 2004 government, with just 145 seats, managed to pass transformative legislation such as the Right to Information Act, the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), and the India-U.S. nuclear deal.
Similarly, Narasimha Rao’s government, with a seat count comparable to Modi’s today, was able to pass sweeping economic reforms that laid the foundation for liberalisation. However, weak governments often face significant roadblocks.
The Modi government has already experienced difficulties, as seen with its early U-turns on issues like the Waqf Bill and lateral entry in governance. Passing legislation, especially controversial bills, will become increasingly difficult without a majority.
Modi’s Path Forward: Shifting Focus
The current Modi government may need to reconsider its legislative priorities in light of its weakened position. Polarising issues such as the Uniform Civil Code or the National Register of Citizens could lead to fierce opposition and legislative gridlock.
Instead, Modi may need to abandon some aspects of Hindutva and adopt a broader, more inclusive governance framework, similar to the approach taken by Vajpayee during his tenure.
Entering a third term without any tangible work, Modi seems struggling to find new ideas. Even some of Modi’s supporters feel a sense of directionlessness in his current term, raising concerns about the government’s ability to implement significant reforms.
The Final Thoughts
Minority governments, while challenging, can still achieve significant legislative success if they are strategic and focused. However, without a clear vision and majority support, Modi could find himself constrained. And forget about finding any relevance with his non-performance in the past few years.
The BJP’s situation today is akin to the British monarch’s symbolic role:
“The king reigns but does not rule.”
Without inclusive policies and new ideas, Modi may find himself in office but unable to make meaningful changes. The future of his administration will depend on its ability to adapt and find common ground within a fractured political landscape.
This will remain in the longer run, since we now see too many fractures witnessed these days in the BJP. This is likely to prevail, making Modi more irrelevant.
(The writer, Mohd Ziyauallah Khan, is a freelance content writer based in Nagpur. He is also an activist and social entrepreneur, co-founder of the group TruthScape, a team of digital activists fighting disinformation on social media.)
Follow ummid.com WhatsApp Channel for all the latest updates.
Select Language To Read in Urdu, Hindi, Marathi or Arabic.
Post Comments