Voting Pattern of Muslims Deserves Dispassionate Study

The Muslims vote maturely across the country, and emotional and communal appeal come into play only in few constituencies where Muslims are in majority or have a substantial population

If Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and All India Majlis e Ittehad ul Muslimeen (AIMIM) are both the B teams of the Bharatiya Janata Party - as many political observers feel, why is it that such a large number of Muslims of voted for Arvind Kejriwal in the 2025 Delhi Polls and not showed similar enthusiasm for Asaduddin Owaisi?

Incidentally, while the nominees of AIMIM had to face the charge of working for the BJP’s victory hardly anyone accused the Muslim candidates of AAP of being agents of the saffron party.

Muslims were well aware of the total apathy of the AAP government during the Delhi riots of February 2020 and its stand on the movement against CAA cum NRC. They were upset over the role AAP - along with the BJP, played in blaming Tablighi Jamaat for the spread of Coronavirus.

Yet, a majority of Muslims voted for AAP not out of love for Kejriwal, who during the campaign did not even visit their localities, but because they thought the party was in a better position to check the BJP than Congress. Had the Congress been in the race, the Muslims would have certainly thrown their weight behind it.

Vote Katwa

In contrast, they thought that the other ‘B team’ of the BJP was not at all in the position to stall the saffron juggernaut. Instead, in most of the cases in Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, the presence of AIMIM candidates facilitated the victory of the BJP. That is why it is called the ‘vote-katwa’ (vote-cutter) party.

As Asaduddin Owaisi’s vote bank is in the Muslim community he knows that his party can win the election only by targeting those parties that traditionally get Muslim votes. This is why his attack is always more vitriolic against Rashtriya Janata Dal, Samajwadi Party, Congress, Trinamool Congress, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, etc than the BJP. In a normal situation, AIMIM cannot expect to get hardcore votes from the BJP.

Even in the 2025 Delhi election, it was only in the two Muslim-dominated seats of Okhla and Mustafabad that some Muslims got carried away and voted for the candidates of All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen.

Once again, it was not because of the appeal of its supremo Asaduddin Owaisi that so many of them voted for Tahir Husain in Mustafabad and Shifa-ur-Rehman in Okhla. But some in the community did so because they both are in jail. Thus sympathy factor also played its part. Not to forget many of the Muslims who voted for them are regretting their decision as in Mustafabad they helped the BJP win.

The voting pattern of Muslims deserves a dispassionate study. The community votes maturely across the country. Emotional and communal appeal come into play only in few constituencies where Muslims are in majority or have a substantial population. AIMIM comes to the scene here.

It may sound unbelievable but true that in the constituencies where AIMIM is in direct contest with Trinamool Congress, Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Samajwadi Party, JMM, or even Aam Aadmi Party and the BJP candidates are not in the race, in such a situation the saffron party rank and file would silently throw their lot behind Owaisi’s AIMIM.

The objective of the BJP is simple: Do not let these ‘secular’ parties win more seats and thus in the process stall their chance of coming to power. This strategy has worked on several occasions, for example in Bihar in the 2020 Assembly election.

Hindu Mahasabha-Muslim League alliance

As politics is a different ball game one needs to understand it in a proper perspective. AIMIM-BJP tacit understanding is nothing new between parties of two extremes. In 1939, Hindu Mahasabha and Muslim League joined hands to keep Congress away.

Though Muslims in general were not satisfied with many of the policies of the Congress and were aware of the pro-Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) tilt of some of its leaders, a large number of them decided to stay in India. Rejecting the Muslim League brand of politics, they continued to vote for Congress till the 1977 election, though they had a lot of complaints against the Grand Old Party. From hindsight, it can be said that it was the right decision.

Delhi situation different

For all its fault, in democracy voters across the world generally vote for lesser evil. The number of fanatic supporters for any party is usually small.

The situation in Delhi was somewhat different from elsewhere. AAP was not so dear to Muslims like RJD in Bihar, SP Uttar Pradesh, and TMC West Bengal. These parties had stood behind Muslims at the height of communal riots. That is why very few Muslims lend their ear to Owaisi’s diatribe against the leaders of these parties.

Contrary to this in Delhi, they had no choice, but to go for AAP.

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