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2024 YR4: How much chance this new Asteroid has to hit Earth?

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and European Space Agency (ESA) said the newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 may hit Earth in 2032

Saturday February 1, 2025 2:00 PM, ummid.com News Network

2024 YR4: How much chance this new Asteroid has to hit Earth?

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Washington: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and European Space Agency (ESA) said the newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 may hit Earth in 2032.

The two space agencies said asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 131 and 328 feet or 40 and 100 metres wide.

Every few thousand years, asteroids of this size impact Earth and they can cause severe damage to local regions.

“The newly found asteroid will pass by Earth on December 22, 2032. But, it has a 1.2% chance of hitting our planet”, the American and European space agencies said.

It also means the space rock has a nearly 99% chance of safely passing by Earth, CNN reported quoting ESA and NASA.

Impact on Earth

The space rock has a “size range comparable to that of a large building", said Dr Paul Chodas, who is the director for the Centre for Near Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS, at Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.

Chodas added that the actual size of the asteroid, which astronomers are trying to determine with follow-up observations using multiple telescopes, is currently highly uncertain.

“If the asteroid turns out to be on the large end of its estimated size range, the impact could produce blast damage as far as 50 kilometres (31 miles) from the impact site,”

“But that’s in the unlikely event that it might impact at all. The potential for damage arises because of the incredibly high speed (about 17 kilometres per second, or 38,028 miles per hour) at which the asteroid would enter the atmosphere", Chodas said.

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